Ben Bernanke, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, said on Tuesday during a Q&A at a Brookings Institution forum that it’s likely that the recession has come to an end. However, he does admit that tight credit conditions, as well as a still soft labor market will continue to be a challenge in the months to come.
Bernanke’s belief that the recession is likely over comes from a technical standpoint – the numbers show improvement. However, he believes that while recovery is underway, we still feel that we’re living in a very weak economy. One reason is that credit conditions still remain tight. Also, the decline in unemployment is only occurring at a gradual rate. His general belief is that the economy will grow in the second half of 2009; however, it will not grow enough to trigger a rapid economy.
Bernanke expressed confidence in policymakers’ ability to move forward on their plans to overhaul the nation’s finance rules. He says that he’s pretty optimistic that a comprehensive reform is on the way. He also expressed belief that the securitization market will come back. However, it might be smaller and “less opaque” than in the past, which could result in more oversight by regulators, and essentially constrain its growth for a while.
So what do you think? Do you feel that the recession is officially over?
