A Coronavirus Downturn Will Hurt These 50 Housing Markets the Most

The coronavirus pandemic has turned the world upside down. Most economies around the globe have been shut down for months, and nearly 50 million Americans have filed for unemployment. The current recession will likely drag down housing prices, as the combination of high unemployment, lost wages and general anxiety is not conducive to a booming real estate market. A recent report by a CoreLogic predicts a year-over-year home price decrease of 6.6% by May 2021.

Polling company Gallup produced results that seem to back up this theory. According to its most recent poll, conducted from April 1-14, only 50% of Americans say it is a good time to buy a house, down from 61% last year. This is the lowest number that Gallup has recorded in its history, lower even than the readings at the end of the 2006 housing bubble. Similarly, just 40% of Americans believe that home prices in their area will rise. This sentiment backdrop is another negative for housing prices.

Of course, the U.S. housing market cannot be completely generalized. Certain pockets of the country are more vulnerable to a housing price decline. To help determine which cities are most at risk, GOBankingRates analyzed the 100 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) using a variety of market internals. A higher percentage of homes with negative equity, homeowners delinquent on mortgage payments and income consumed by mortgage payments were seen as predictive of a stronger impact on the MSA’s housing market in the event of a coronavirus downturn. The 50 housing markets most vulnerable to damage were then ranked, with No. 1 being the most susceptible.

Although this analysis doesn’t mean that housing prices will crash in these markets, it should serve as a warning as to which MSAs are most susceptible to a pricing downturn, if it occurs. Although California and Florida cities dominate the list, occupying 15 of the top 50 MSAs, cities like Toledo, Ohio, and Columbia, South Carolina, are also vulnerable. City wealth, as measured by its residents’ incomes, is neither a defense nor a specific weakness, as cities with median incomes higher than $100,000 and as low as $48,000 both appear on the list.

Of course, there is always a silver lining to housing market price drops. Short-term dips in the housing market shouldn’t be of great concern to long-term homeowners, as when the current recession inevitably passes, prices are likely to recover once again. If you are currently a renter or in the process of shopping for homes, a drop in housing prices might actually prove beneficial, as you’ll be able to get into a good housing market on the cheap.

Last updated: July 21, 2020

• Population: 718,679
• Median home sale price: $243,300
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,052
• Median income: $54,691
• Monthly income: $4,558
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 23%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 6.20%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 0.90%

• Population: 2,339,941
• Median home sale price: $158,100
• Estimated mortgage payment: $734
• Median income: $58,290
• Monthly income: $4,858
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 15%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 8.60%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.00%

• Population: 848,112
• Median home sale price: $618,200
• Estimated mortgage payment: $2,555
• Median income: $84,017
• Monthly income: $7,001
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 36%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 4.50%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 0.50%

• Population: 704,454
• Median home sale price: $148,100
• Estimated mortgage payment: $689
• Median income: $55,718
• Monthly income: $4,643
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 15%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 9.50%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 0.90%

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• Population: 785,997
• Median home sale price: $272,900
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,180
• Median income: $57,506
• Monthly income: $4,792
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 25%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 5.30%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.00%

• Population: 759,247
• Median home sale price: $273,000
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,074
• Median income: $60,884
• Monthly income: $5,074
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 21%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 5.90%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.10%

• Population: 987,638
• Median home sale price: $624,500
• Estimated mortgage payment: $2,332
• Median income: $82,906
• Monthly income: $6,909
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 34%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 4.60%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 0.70%

• Population: 7,255,028
• Median home sale price: $270,000
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,357
• Median income: $66,982
• Monthly income: $5,582
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 24%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 4.40%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.20%

• Population: 1,074,667
• Median home sale price: $148,000
• Estimated mortgage payment: $672
• Median income: $57,417
• Monthly income: $4,785
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 14%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 6.80%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.40%

• Population: 1,369,759
• Median home sale price: $162,600
• Estimated mortgage payment: $672
• Median income: $57,072
• Monthly income: $4,756
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 14%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 7.60%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.30%

• Population: 757,810
• Median home sale price: $160,600
• Estimated mortgage payment: $669
• Median income: $48,776
• Monthly income: $4,065
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 16%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 8.30%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.10%

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• Population: 5,779,463
• Median home sale price: $241,700
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,017
• Median income: $64,766
• Monthly income: $5,397
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 19%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 7.60%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.10%

• Population: 2,805,551
• Median home sale price: $180,900
• Estimated mortgage payment: $835
• Median income: $61,317
• Monthly income: $5,110
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 16%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 10.40%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 0.90%

• Population: 732,212
• Median home sale price: $371,800
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,537
• Median income: $61,145
• Monthly income: $5,095
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 30%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 5.60%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 0.90%

• Population: 1,615,516
• Median home sale price: $289,600
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,308
• Median income: $64,248
• Monthly income: $5,354
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 24%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 5.50%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.20%

• Population: 594,300
• Median home sale price: $170,500
• Estimated mortgage payment: $695
• Median income: $51,104
• Monthly income: $4,259
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 16%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 10.00%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.00%

• Population: 3,302,833
• Median home sale price: $588,200
• Estimated mortgage payment: $2,431
• Median income: $74,855
• Monthly income: $6,238
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 39%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 5.00%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 0.60%

• Population: 630,275
• Median home sale price: $228,200
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,000
• Median income: $56,513
• Monthly income: $4,709
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 21%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 5.60%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.40%

• Population: 880,481
• Median home sale price: $204,500
• Estimated mortgage payment: $929
• Median income: $68,651
• Monthly income: $5,721
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 16%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 8.20%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.30%

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• Population: 1,019,722
• Median home sale price: $228,700
• Estimated mortgage payment: $942
• Median income: $51,037
• Monthly income: $4,253
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 22%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 9.20%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 0.90%

• Population: 3,030,047
• Median home sale price: $235,500
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,019
• Median income: $52,882
• Monthly income: $4,407
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 23%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 5.90%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.40%

• Population: 4,518,699
• Median home sale price: $376,000
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,554
• Median income: $62,301
• Monthly income: $5,192
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 30%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 6.40%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.00%

• Population: 938,818
• Median home sale price: $280,900
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,302
• Median income: $70,716
• Monthly income: $5,893
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 22%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 5.60%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.50%

• Population: 6,138,382
• Median home sale price: $398,900
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,616
• Median income: $100,732
• Monthly income: $8,394
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 19%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 9.70%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.10%

• Population: 802,645
• Median home sale price: $143,700
• Estimated mortgage payment: $668
• Median income: $53,393
• Monthly income: $4,449
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 15%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 12.20%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.00%

• Population: 2,061,766
• Median home sale price: $143,100
• Estimated mortgage payment: $665
• Median income: $54,273
• Monthly income: $4,523
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 15%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 10.90%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.20%

• Population: 2,141,574
• Median home sale price: $288,500
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,217
• Median income: $56,802
• Monthly income: $4,734
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 26%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 7.10%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.20%

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• Population: 985,233
• Median home sale price: $168,700
• Estimated mortgage payment: $697
• Median income: $54,110
• Monthly income: $4,509
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 15%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 9.40%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.40%

• Population: 2,450,261
• Median home sale price: $262,000
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,133
• Median income: $55,095
• Monthly income: $4,591
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 25%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 6.10%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.40%

• Population: 634,773
• Median home sale price: $211,100
• Estimated mortgage payment: $913
• Median income: $48,066
• Monthly income: $4,006
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 23%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 6.10%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.50%

• Population: 734,502
• Median home sale price: $155,400
• Estimated mortgage payment: $614
• Median income: $53,008
• Monthly income: $4,417
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 14%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 10.90%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.30%

• Population: 978,130
• Median home sale price: $274,600
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,135
• Median income: $51,261
• Monthly income: $4,272
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 27%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 8.70%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.00%

• Population: 834,615
• Median home sale price: $188,300
• Estimated mortgage payment: $916
• Median income: $64,877
• Monthly income: $5,406
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 17%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 8.50%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.50%

• Population: 13,262,234
• Median home sale price: $676,600
• Estimated mortgage payment: $2,797
• Median income: $69,138
• Monthly income: $5,762
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 49%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 4.10%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 0.60%

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• Population: 604,620
• Median home sale price: $131,200
• Estimated mortgage payment: $610
• Median income: $50,428
• Monthly income: $4,202
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 15%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 14.10%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.00%

• Population: 1,209,367
• Median home sale price: $234,200
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,142
• Median income: $75,752
• Monthly income: $6,313
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 18%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 10.00%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.40%

• Population: 6,070,944
• Median home sale price: $285,900
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,237
• Median income: $54,239
• Monthly income: $4,520
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 27%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 7.20%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.40%

• Population: 1,475,386
• Median home sale price: $238,300
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,031
• Median income: $58,957
• Monthly income: $4,913
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 21%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 8.60%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.60%

• Population: 668,671
• Median home sale price: $194,800
• Estimated mortgage payment: $843
• Median income: $48,500
• Monthly income: $4,042
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 21%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 7.30%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.80%

• Population: 1,345,991
• Median home sale price: $173,800
• Estimated mortgage payment: $694
• Median income: $51,360
• Monthly income: $4,280
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 16%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 9.90%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.70%

• Population: 2,793,250
• Median home sale price: $251,500
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,067
• Median income: $78,686
• Monthly income: $6,557
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 16%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 12.40%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.50%

• Population: 1,722,001
• Median home sale price: $238,000
• Estimated mortgage payment: $988
• Median income: $64,534
• Monthly income: $5,378
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 18%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 14.20%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.20%

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• Population: 9,536,428
• Median home sale price: $241,400
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,141
• Median income: $68,715
• Monthly income: $5,726
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 20%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 13.50%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.30%

• Population: 816,664
• Median home sale price: $164,900
• Estimated mortgage payment: $649
• Median income: $54,491
• Monthly income: $4,541
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 14%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 12.00%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.80%

• Population: 883,053
• Median home sale price: $246,200
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,018
• Median income: $52,479
• Monthly income: $4,373
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 23%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 11.70%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.40%

• Population: 6,069,448
• Median home sale price: $231,900
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,036
• Median income: $69,465
• Monthly income: $5,789
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 18%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 10.00%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.90%

• Population: 944,348
• Median home sale price: $411,300
• Estimated mortgage payment: $2,005
• Median income: $92,969
• Monthly income: $7,747
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 26%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 9.90%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.60%

• Population: 1,263,635
• Median home sale price: $209,700
• Estimated mortgage payment: $769
• Median income: $51,449
• Monthly income: $4,287
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 18%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 11.80%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.80%

• Population: 19,990,592
• Median home sale price: $418,600
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,986
• Median income: $75,086
• Monthly income: $6,257
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 32%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 8.50%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.90%

• Population: 859,339
• Median home sale price: $211,900
• Estimated mortgage payment: $1,033
• Median income: $67,128
• Monthly income: $5,594
• Percentage of income going toward mortgage: 18%
• Percentage of homes with negative equity: 13.70%
• Percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage: 1.90%

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Methodology: For this study, GOBankingRates first identified the 100 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the U.S. according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey. Next, GOBankingRates compiled Zillow’s most recent data (2018) on each MSA’s housing market health, specifically looking at (1) the percentage of homes with negative equity and (2) the percentage of homeowners delinquent on mortgage payments in each MSA. Then, GOBankingRates found (3) the February 2020 median home sale price in each MSA from Zillow, (4) the annual median household income in each MSA from the 2018 ACS, (5) the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. as of April 23, 2020, from the Federal Reserve’s Economic Data site and (6) the average 2020 property tax rate in each MSA’s state from tax-rates.org (MSAs which cross state borders were assigned the average of their states’ tax rates). Factors No. 3, 5 and 6 were then used with Zillow’s mortgage calculator to create (7) an estimated monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home in each MSA. This figure was subsequently compared to factor No. 4 to find (8) the percentage of each MSA’s median monthly income that would be consumed by mortgage payments on a median-priced home in the area. The 75 MSAs for which all relevant data was available were then scored against each other on factors No. 1, 2 and 8 and ranked by their cumulative scores in these three areas. A higher percentage of homes with negative equity, homeowners delinquent on mortgage payments and income consumed by mortgage payments were seen as predictive of a stronger impact on the MSA’s housing market in the event of a coronavirus downturn. The 50 housing markets most vulnerable to damage are ranked here, with No. 1 being the most susceptible. All data was collected on and up to date as of April 29, 2020.