Tariffs Have Helped and Hurt These Stocks the Most

Stock markets can be enormously difficult to read. After all, there’s no real way of knowing why millions of different people were buying and selling a particular security at that particular price on that particular day. You can infer what’s driving changes in price based on the news, but that can also mislead you as often as not. That can make it very difficult to get a great read on just how the trade war is affecting companies’ bottom lines and making predictions about which firms might be in for a major drop (or a big boost) if the current state of affairs persists.

However, even though it’s dangerous to assume a certain news story is what’s driving price movements, it can also help to take a big step back and see which stocks have experienced the most dramatic changes during a certain period. Not every spike or plunge that’s come in the wake of the tariffs can be explained away by the trade war alone, but understanding which companies have experienced the most dramatic change in their fortunes can provide you a clearer view of the market.

That’s why GOBankingRates conducted a study to determine which stocks appear to have been helped (or hurt) the most by these taxes. The study took over 100 major stocks and analyzed their performance from March 1, 2018 — when the steel and aluminum tariffs went into effect — through the end of September 2019. After adjusting that to reflect the annual rate of return, the study found each stock’s average annual return from the last five years and 10 years and compared the differences. The end result is a snapshot of which companies have been most heavily affected by the trade war.

There could be a lot of reasons why these stocks have performed so much better since March of last year than they had in the last five- and 10-year periods. But, the correlation between the beginning of the tariff fights and when their prospects improved is hard to ignore.

Look: The Best Cheap Stocks To Buy in 2019

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $99.43
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $139.01
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 25.14%
• Average annual return last five years: 15.09%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 17.83%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 10.05%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 7.31%

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• Closing price March 1, 2018: $150.17
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $214.71
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 27.14%
• Average annual return last five years: 19.77%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 15.75%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 7.37%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 11.39%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $61.25
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $76.28
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 15.50%
• Average annual return last five years: 3.33%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 7.64%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 12.17%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 7.86%

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• Closing price March 1, 2018: $103.10
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $137.10
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 20.83%
• Average annual return last five years: 10.27%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 10.67%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 10.56%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 10.16%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $90.67
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $139.03
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 33.69%
• Average annual return last five years: 26.12%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 19.31%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 7.57%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 14.38%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $26.50
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $40.69
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 33.82%
• Average annual return last five years: 28.7%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 15.09%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 5.12%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 18.73%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $40.99
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $54.44
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 20.72%
• Average annual return last five years: 8.02%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 9.65%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 12.7%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 11.07%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $109.78
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $161.42
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 29.71%
• Average annual return last five years: 17.63%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 17.4%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 12.08%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 12.31%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $142.75
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $193.72
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 22.55%
• Average annual return last five years: 9.54%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 10.63%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 13.01%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 11.92%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $44.89
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $60.36
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 21.76%
• Average annual return last five years: 7.68%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 10.76%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 14.08%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 11%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $70.75
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $95.86
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 22.42%
• Average annual return last five years: 8.91%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 10.46%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 13.51%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 11.96%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $85.67
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $118.68
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 24.34%
• Average annual return last five years: 11.06%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 10.68%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 13.28%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 13.66%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $162.34
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $265.94
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 40.3%
• Average annual return last five years: 26.37%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 25.85%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 13.93%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 14.45%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $75.36
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $108.62
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 27.88%
• Average annual return last five years: 13.11%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 12.65%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 14.77%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 15.23%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $186.15
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $288.11
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 34.6%
• Average annual return last five years: 19.81%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 19.07%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 14.79%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 15.53%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $95.03
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $144.43
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 32.83%
• Average annual return last five years: 17.39%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 17.75%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 15.44%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 15.08%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $57.29
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $83.67
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 29.08%
• Average annual return last five years: 16%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 10.54%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 13.08%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 18.54%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $147.49
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $232.99
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 36.61%
• Average annual return last five years: 21.71%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 16.97%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 14.9%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 19.64%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $54.45
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $88.42
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 39.41%
• Average annual return last five years: 19.75%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 24.88%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 19.66%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 14.53%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $73.94
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $111.83
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 32.36%
• Average annual return last five years: 13.25%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 14.98%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 19.11%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 17.38%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $40.84
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $61.77
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 32.37%
• Average annual return last five years: 11.04%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 10%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 21.33%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 22.37%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $130.72
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $221.13
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 43.69%
• Average annual return last five years: 20.23%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 20.63%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 23.46%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 23.06%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $51.07
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $84.18
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 40.95%
• Average annual return last five years: 22.87%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 11.75%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 18.08%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 29.2%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $74.98
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $124.38
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 41.61%
• Average annual return last five years: 10.15%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 9.79%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 31.46%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 31.82%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $11.90
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $28.99
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 90.7%
• Average annual return last five years: 52.09%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 17.62%

Difference from five-year rate of return: 38.61%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 73.08%

Again, it’s entirely possible that some of these companies have simply had a bad stretch of luck that’s otherwise unrelated to the introduction of tariffs. However, the correlation between significantly worse returns and changes in trade policy for each of these companies might also be a sign these firms rely too much on international trade for their bottom line.

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $54.37
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $50.44
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -4.56%
• Average annual return last five years: 2.15%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 8.02%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -6.71%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -12.58%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $73.04
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $63.38
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -8.36%
• Average annual return last five years: -7.27%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 12.28%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -1.09%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -20.64%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $13.18
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $8.94
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -20.32%
• Average annual return last five years: -13.13%
• Average annual return last 10 years: -0.25%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -7.19%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -20.07%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $227.32
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $240.10
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 3.55%
• Average annual return last five years: 16.38%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 18.14%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -12.83%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -14.59%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $102.96
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $109.96
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 4.29%
• Average annual return last five years: 17.34%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 19.1%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -13.05%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -14.81%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $250.27
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $207.23
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -10.86%
• Average annual return last five years: 4.07%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 2.66%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -14.93%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -13.52%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $67.35
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $55.31
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -11.29%
• Average annual return last five years: 0.54%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 7.09%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -11.83%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -18.38%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $330.29
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $374.79
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 8.51%
• Average annual return last five years: 25.09%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 23.22%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -16.58%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -14.71%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $149.46
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $140.16
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -3.93%
• Average annual return last five years: 12.5%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 13.47%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -16.43%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -17.4%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $338.86
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $380.47
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 7.76%
• Average annual return last five years: 26.61%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 23.44%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -18.85%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -15.68%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $144.68
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $126.31
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -8.02%
• Average annual return last five years: 7.44%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 11.57%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -15.46%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -19.59%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $229.27
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $276.07
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 12.89%
• Average annual return last five years: 28.33%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 33.32%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -15.44%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -20.43%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $94.90
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $75.93
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -12.63%
• Average annual return last five years: 2.91%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 8.94%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -15.54%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -21.57%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $62.77
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $50.71
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -12.14%
• Average annual return last five years: 2.21%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 11.12%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -14.35%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -23.26%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $26.47
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $15.54
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -26.08%
• Average annual return last five years: -17.2%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 3.91%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -8.88%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -29.99%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $2,028.37
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $1,962.61
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -2.05%
• Average annual return last five years: 11.36%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 28.53%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -13.41%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -30.58%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $218.62
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $217.32
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -0.37%
• Average annual return last five years: 22.34%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 25.21%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -22.71%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -25.58%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $56.44
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $40.90
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -17.39%
• Average annual return last five years: 3.5%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 13.48%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -20.89%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -30.87%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $235.07
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $164.40
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -18.99%
• Average annual return last five years: 5.69%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 10.49%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -24.68%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -29.48%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $1,493.45
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $1,735.91
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 10.25%
• Average annual return last five years: 40.59%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 34.61%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -30.34%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -24.36%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $193.33
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $151.79
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -13.57%
• Average annual return last five years: 11.12%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 18.58%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -24.69%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -32.15%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $103.58
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $79.25
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -14.84%
• Average annual return last five years: 8.57%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 20.99%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -23.41%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -35.83%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $60.54
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $47.71
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -13.39%
• Average annual return last five years: 16.02%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 23.55%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -29.41%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -36.94%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $290.39
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $267.62
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -4.95%
• Average annual return last five years: 33.11%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 44.63%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -38.06%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -49.58%

• Closing price March 1, 2018: $230.98
• Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $174.07
• Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -15.56%
• Average annual return last five years: 57.76%
• Average annual return last 10 years: 28.75%

Difference from five-year rate of return: -73.32%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -44.31%

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