Tariffs Have Helped and Hurt These Stocks the Most
See which companies have been most affected by the trade war.
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Stock markets can be enormously difficult to read. After all, there’s no real way of knowing why millions of different people were buying and selling a particular security at that particular price on that particular day. You can infer what’s driving changes in price based on the news, but that can also mislead you as often as not. That can make it very difficult to get a great read on just how the trade war is affecting companies’ bottom lines and making predictions about which firms might be in for a major drop (or a big boost) if the current state of affairs persists.
However, even though it’s dangerous to assume a certain news story is what’s driving price movements, it can also help to take a big step back and see which stocks have experienced the most dramatic changes during a certain period. Not every spike or plunge that’s come in the wake of the tariffs can be explained away by the trade war alone, but understanding which companies have experienced the most dramatic change in their fortunes can provide you a clearer view of the market.
That’s why GOBankingRates conducted a study to determine which stocks appear to have been helped (or hurt) the most by these taxes. The study took over 100 major stocks and analyzed their performance from March 1, 2018 — when the steel and aluminum tariffs went into effect — through the end of September 2019. After adjusting that to reflect the annual rate of return, the study found each stock’s average annual return from the last five years and 10 years and compared the differences. The end result is a snapshot of which companies have been most heavily affected by the trade war.
Stocks That Have Performed Better Under New Tariffs
There could be a lot of reasons why these stocks have performed so much better since March of last year than they had in the last five- and 10-year periods. But, the correlation between the beginning of the tariff fights and when their prospects improved is hard to ignore.
25. Crown Castle International Corp. (CCI)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $99.43
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $139.01
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 25.14%
- Average annual return last five years: 15.09%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 17.83%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 10.05%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 7.31%
24. McDonald's (MCD)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $150.17
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $214.71
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 27.14%
- Average annual return last five years: 19.77%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 15.75%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 7.37%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 11.39%
23. Qualcomm (QCOM)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $61.25
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $76.28
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 15.50%
- Average annual return last five years: 3.33%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 7.64%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 12.17%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 7.86%
22. Pepsi (PEP)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $103.10
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $137.10
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 20.83%
- Average annual return last five years: 10.27%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 10.67%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 10.56%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 10.16%
21. Microsoft (MSFT)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $90.67
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $139.03
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 33.69%
- Average annual return last five years: 26.12%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 19.31%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 7.57%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 14.38%
20. Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $26.50
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $40.69
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 33.82%
- Average annual return last five years: 28.7%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 15.09%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 5.12%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 18.73%
19. Coca-Cola (KO)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $40.99
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $54.44
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 20.72%
- Average annual return last five years: 8.02%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 9.65%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 12.7%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 11.07%
18. ADP (ADP)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $109.78
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $161.42
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 29.71%
- Average annual return last five years: 17.63%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 17.4%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 12.08%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 12.31%
17. Linde (LIN)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $142.75
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $193.72
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 22.55%
- Average annual return last five years: 9.54%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 10.63%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 13.01%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 11.92%
16. Verizon (VZ)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $44.89
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $60.36
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 21.76%
- Average annual return last five years: 7.68%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 10.76%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 14.08%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 11%
15. Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $70.75
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $95.86
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 22.42%
- Average annual return last five years: 8.91%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 10.46%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 13.51%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 11.96%
14. Walmart (WMT)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $85.67
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $118.68
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 24.34%
- Average annual return last five years: 11.06%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 10.68%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 13.28%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 13.66%
13. Intuit (INTU)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $162.34
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $265.94
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 40.3%
- Average annual return last five years: 26.37%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 25.85%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 13.93%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 14.45%
12. Medtronic (MDT)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $75.36
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $108.62
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 27.88%
- Average annual return last five years: 13.11%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 12.65%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 14.77%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 15.23%
11. Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $186.15
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $288.11
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 34.6%
- Average annual return last five years: 19.81%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 19.07%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 14.79%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 15.53%
10. Danaher Corporation (DHR)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $95.03
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $144.43
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 32.83%
- Average annual return last five years: 17.39%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 17.75%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 15.44%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 15.08%
9. Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $57.29
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $83.67
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 29.08%
- Average annual return last five years: 16%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 10.54%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 13.08%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 18.54%
8. NextEra Energy (NEE)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $147.49
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $232.99
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 36.61%
- Average annual return last five years: 21.71%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 16.97%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 14.9%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 19.64%
7. Starbucks (SBUX)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $54.45
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $88.42
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 39.41%
- Average annual return last five years: 19.75%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 24.88%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 19.66%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 14.53%
6. Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $73.94
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $111.83
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 32.36%
- Average annual return last five years: 13.25%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 14.98%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 19.11%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 17.38%
5. The Southern Company (SO)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $40.84
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $61.77
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 32.37%
- Average annual return last five years: 11.04%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 10%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 21.33%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 22.37%
4. American Tower Corporation (AMT)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $130.72
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $221.13
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 43.69%
- Average annual return last five years: 20.23%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 20.63%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 23.46%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 23.06%
3. Merck (MRK)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $51.07
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $84.18
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 40.95%
- Average annual return last five years: 22.87%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 11.75%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 18.08%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 29.2%
2. Procter & Gamble (PG)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $74.98
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $124.38
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 41.61%
- Average annual return last five years: 10.15%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 9.79%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 31.46%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 31.82%
1. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $11.90
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $28.99
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 90.7%
- Average annual return last five years: 52.09%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 17.62%
Difference from five-year rate of return: 38.61%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: 73.08%
Stocks That Tariffs Have Potentially Hurt
Again, it’s entirely possible that some of these companies have simply had a bad stretch of luck that’s otherwise unrelated to the introduction of tariffs. However, the correlation between significantly worse returns and changes in trade policy for each of these companies might also be a sign these firms rely too much on international trade for their bottom line.
25. Wells Fargo (WFC)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $54.37
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $50.44
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -4.56%
- Average annual return last five years: 2.15%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 8.02%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -6.71%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -12.58%
24. Gilead Sciences (GILD)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $73.04
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $63.38
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -8.36%
- Average annual return last five years: -7.27%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 12.28%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -1.09%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -20.64%
23. General Electric (GE)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $13.18
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $8.94
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -20.32%
- Average annual return last five years: -13.13%
- Average annual return last 10 years: -0.25%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -7.19%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -20.07%
22. Anthem (ANTM)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $227.32
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $240.10
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 3.55%
- Average annual return last five years: 16.38%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 18.14%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -12.83%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -14.59%
21. Lowe's Companies (LOW)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $102.96
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $109.96
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 4.29%
- Average annual return last five years: 17.34%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 19.1%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -13.05%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -14.81%
20. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $250.27
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $207.23
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -10.86%
- Average annual return last five years: 4.07%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 2.66%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -14.93%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -13.52%
19. Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $67.35
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $55.31
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -11.29%
- Average annual return last five years: 0.54%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 7.09%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -11.83%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -18.38%
18. Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $330.29
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $374.79
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 8.51%
- Average annual return last five years: 25.09%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 23.22%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -16.58%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -14.71%
17. The PNC Financial Services Group (PNC)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $149.46
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $140.16
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -3.93%
- Average annual return last five years: 12.5%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 13.47%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -16.43%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -17.4%
16. Boeing (BA)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $338.86
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $380.47
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 7.76%
- Average annual return last five years: 26.61%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 23.44%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -18.85%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -15.68%
15. Caterpillar (CAT)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $144.68
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $126.31
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -8.02%
- Average annual return last five years: 7.44%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 11.57%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -15.46%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -19.59%
14. Broadcom (AVGO)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $229.27
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $276.07
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 12.89%
- Average annual return last five years: 28.33%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 33.32%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -15.44%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -20.43%
13. Philip Morris International (PM)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $94.90
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $75.93
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -12.63%
- Average annual return last five years: 2.91%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 8.94%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -15.54%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -21.57%
12. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $62.77
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $50.71
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -12.14%
- Average annual return last five years: 2.21%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 11.12%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -14.35%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -23.26%
11. Macy's (M)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $26.47
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $15.54
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -26.08%
- Average annual return last five years: -17.2%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 3.91%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -8.88%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -29.99%
10. Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $2,028.37
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $1,962.61
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -2.05%
- Average annual return last five years: 11.36%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 28.53%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -13.41%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -30.58%
9. UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $218.62
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $217.32
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -0.37%
- Average annual return last five years: 22.34%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 25.21%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -22.71%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -25.58%
8. Altria (MO)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $56.44
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $40.90
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -17.39%
- Average annual return last five years: 3.5%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 13.48%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -20.89%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -30.87%
7. 3M (MMM)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $235.07
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $164.40
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -18.99%
- Average annual return last five years: 5.69%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 10.49%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -24.68%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -29.48%
6. Amazon (AMZN)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $1,493.45
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $1,735.91
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: 10.25%
- Average annual return last five years: 40.59%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 34.61%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -30.34%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -24.36%
5. Cigna (CI)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $193.33
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $151.79
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -13.57%
- Average annual return last five years: 11.12%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 18.58%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -24.69%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -32.15%
4. Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $103.58
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $79.25
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -14.84%
- Average annual return last five years: 8.57%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 20.99%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -23.41%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -35.83%
3. AO Smith (AOS)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $60.54
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $47.71
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -13.39%
- Average annual return last five years: 16.02%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 23.55%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -29.41%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -36.94%
2. Netflix (NFLX)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $290.39
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $267.62
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -4.95%
- Average annual return last five years: 33.11%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 44.63%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -38.06%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -49.58%
1. Nvidia (NVDA)
- Closing price March 1, 2018: $230.98
- Closing price Sept. 30, 2019: $174.07
- Annualized return since March 1, 2018: -15.56%
- Average annual return last five years: 57.76%
- Average annual return last 10 years: 28.75%
Difference from five-year rate of return: -73.32%
Difference from 10-year rate of return: -44.31%
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About the Author
Joel Anderson
Joel Anderson is a business and finance writer with over a decade of experience writing about the wide world of finance. Based in Los Angeles, he specializes in writing about the financial markets, stocks, macroeconomic concepts and focuses on helping make complex financial concepts digestible for the retail investor.
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