Trump vs. Harris: Here’s Who Americans Think Would Better Handle Skyrocketing Inflation

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High inflation has a been a major financial headache for Americans this decade — and it’s a major economic issue in the 2024 presidential race. Although the current inflation rate has fallen to 2.9% from more than 9% a couple of years ago, it’s still well above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. Inflation also weighs heavily on the minds of voters as they decide between Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and ex-President Donald Trump, who leads the Republican ticket.

A new GOBankingRates survey of 1,004 U.S. adults found that inflation is far and away the most important economic/finance issue in the 2024 election cycle.

Here’s how respondents gauged five different issues in order of importance:

• Inflation: 49.20% of respondents
• Social Security and Medicare: 26.89%
• Government spending: 9.06%
• Healthcare costs: 7.97%
• Unemployment: 6.87%

In terms of which candidate they think will do a better job at tackling inflation as president, Harris has a slight edge over Trump, according to the survey results:

• Harris: 43.63%
• Trump: 39.44%
• Either: 2.99%
• Neither: 7.87%
• Don’t know: 6.08%

This might come as a surprise, considering that inflation was much lower under Trump than under President Joe Biden. According to a recent analysis from Forbes, inflation rose 19% over the first 42 months of Biden’s term vs. 6% during Trump’s first 42 months. Annual inflation peaked at 9% in 2022 — the highest rate in more than four decades.

Because Harris serves as VP under Biden, you’d think she might take a hit from his record on inflation. But she has a couple of advantages. First off, she’s not Biden, and many Americans apparently don’t hold her responsible for historically high inflation rates on his watch. Second, many voters (and economists) are wary of Trump’s policies regarding inflation.

In July, when Biden was still the presumed Democratic nominee, The Wall Street Journal published an article headlined: “Economists Say Inflation Would Be Worse Under Trump Than Biden.”

The headline was based on a quarterly survey of economists. Many pointed to Trump’s plans to raise tariffs and crack down on illegal immigration — both of which could push prices higher.

“I think there is a real risk that inflation will reaccelerate under a Trump presidency,” Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group, told the WSJ. He added that such a trend would likely lead the Fed to set interest rates higher than if inflation continued on its current downward trajectory.

Many economists oppose high tariffs on imported goods that are much cheaper to source overseas — and cheaper to sell in the U.S. Economists also fear that cracking down on undocumented workers will reduce an already tight labor pool and push wages (and prices) higher.

Another advantage Harris has is that she hasn’t had much time to unveil specific economic policies — which means critics haven’t had much time to poke holes in those policies. In fact, the GBR survey found that respondents give Harris the edge in terms of overall economic policy, with 43.82% favoring her and 38.55% favoring Trump.

One policy Harris favors is enacting the first federal law against price gouging by food suppliers and grocery stores, CBS News reported. The idea is based on data showing that some food companies have seen record profits even as they’ve blamed inflation for skyrocketing grocery prices.

But while Harris’ proposal might sound good to voters, some economists are not sold on that idea.

“There are lots of reasons for the high inflation we’ve suffered over the past several years, but aggressive or unfair pricing practices are at bottom of list of reasons, if they’re on the list at all,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CBS MoneyWatch.

“It may have been more of an issue back when supply chains were being disrupted by the pandemic, but today it’s hard to point to any significant, meaningful examples of price gouging.”

Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.

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