Trump Now Says $2,000 Checks Are Coming by Mid-2026: How To Plan Your Budget Now
Written by
Travis Woods
Edited by
Zuri Anderson
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Throughout the waning months of 2025, President Donald Trump has repeatedly asserted that most Americans in 2026 would be receiving $2,000 “tariff dividend checks” — that is, essentially, checks funded by revenues collected by Trump’s controversial tariff policies throughout 2025.
Despite the president’s confidence, his own cabinet has seemed reticent about the dividend checks, with WCNC reporting in November that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cautioned “we will see” regarding the checks, and that “We need legislation for that.”
President Trump, however, has continued to assert without doubt that the checks are coming, and has gone so far to say they will arrive by mid-2026 — even if the legality of his tariffs is still currently in question.
As recently as Dec. 2, Trump has repeatedly promised the dividend checks, noting during a cabinet meeting that “Next year is projected to be the largest tax refund season ever, and we’re going to be giving back refunds out of the tariffs, as we have taken in literally trillions of dollars… We’re going to be giving a nice dividend to the people in addition to reducing the debt,” according to USA Today.
With Trump’s eagerness to send these dividend checks out to Americans, how should you budget accordingly if they happen?
How Much Money Will Trump’s Tariffs Generate?
The Congressional Budget Office projected on Nov. 15 that Trump’s tariff policy will generate $3 trillion total for the government to spend. Currently, the U.S. Census Bureau has counted approximately 260 million adults living in America; a $2,000 check for each of them would cost at baseline $520 billion (not counting the costs of actually disbursing those checks).
Are These Checks Really Coming?
President Trump has fixated upon and touted the tariff dividend checks for months, and has repeatedly asserted they would arrive by mid-2026. It remains to be seen if Trump’s tariffs will be struck down by the Supreme Court, and if Congress will approve the disbursal of the checks. These are significant “maybes” — if the Supreme Court decides Trump’s tariff policies are illegitimate, the tariffs will almost certainly be discontinued.
Further, even Trump’s own party may be hesitant to send out such checks In July 2025, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) pushed for the American Worker Act, which would have provided stimulus checks for Americans, and failed to gain traction among his fellow Republicans. Other Republicans have already pushed back against Trump’s dividend checks. Per Semafor, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) has promised to oppose such checks until American’s $2 trillion deficit is resolved.
How Should You Prepare for the Checks?
In short, the $2,000 tariff dividends are by no means guaranteed. President Trump can tend towards hyperbole at times, and his assertion that the checks are coming does not mean they are a financial reality just yet, especially with the legal and congressional hurdles that are looming between now and mid-2026.
As such, the safest way to budget for the $2,000 is not to budget for it at all. At least, not yet — President Trump has proven rather resourceful in pushing through unpopular elements of his agenda (such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act); that said, to bank on an uncertain $2,000 payout during financially tumultuous times is likely an unwise move, unless you can afford to lose $2,000 if the checks never happen.
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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