Bakersfield and 2 California Cities Where the Cost of Living May Go Down While Trump Is President
Written by
Marc Guberti
Edited by
Amber Barkley
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Although California voted blue in 2024, it’s still going to be affected by President Donald Trump’s policies during his second term. While real estate prices tend to go up over time, some cities may become more affordable over the next four years.
Jeb Smith is a real estate broker, YouTuber and podcaster at Real Brokerage, LLC. He has more than two decades of experience in the mortgage and real estate industry, and highlighted three cities that could get cheaper under Trump.
“You’ll likely see cities like Bakersfield, Fresno and Modesto with a lower cost of living. These areas already have more affordable housing and could benefit from increased inventory and local job growth. They’re not as tied to the volatility of coastal markets, which means policies supporting affordability might actually help here,” he explained.
Here’s what you should know about each of these cities. Also, learn about the top 10 real estate markets in California.
Bakersfield
Bakersfield is around 110 miles away from Los Angeles. The city has the Kern County Brewery and Wine Trails, raceways and plenty of outdoor activities. It also offers plenty of entertainment options, such as the Bakersfield eSports Center and the Bakersfield Music Hall of Fame.
The average home price in Bakersfield is $389,444. The state has been attracting new people, but its growth rate is decelerating. For instance, Bakersfield achieved a 1.4% population growth rate in 2022, but that figure dropped to 0.8% in 2024. It’s still a healthy growth rate, but a lower growth rate can keep prices stable.
Another advantage in Bakersfield’s favor is that it’s away from coastal areas. Aspiring home buyers don’t have to worry about beachfront homes inflating the prices of other homes. Part of the reason coastal cities are so expensive is because people are willing to pay a premium for beachfront properties. Then, properties near the beach also get more expensive, even if they aren’t beachfront homes.
The city also has lower costs for essential expenses like groceries and transportation compared to California’s coastal cities. Those lower costs make it easier to keep up with the mortgage payments.
Fresno
Smith also highlighted Fresno, an agricultural city, as a place that may become more affordable over time. The average home value is $382,320. The city’s population increases by an estimated 0.18% each year, according to World Population Review. Immigration has played a role in higher populations, but Trump’s hard stance on immigration and planned deportations could lead to slower growth in the future.
Slow population growth can result in lower housing prices. At the same time, the city is already well populated, with around 803,000 people as of 2024.
Fresno has plenty of things to do: You can visit the zoo, underground gardens, waterpark and art museum. There are also hiking trails and campgrounds for outdoor enthusiasts.
Fresno is about 220 miles away from Los Angeles and 190 miles from San Francisco. It’s located so you can reasonably drive to either city within a day, but far away enough to have affordable housing options.
Modesto
Modesto offers a vibrant downturn that is a reasonable drive from San Francisco. The city has 218,989 residents as of 2024, which is a slight increase from 2023. Modest population growth can keep housing prices in check, and the area is already more affordable than nearby cities — the average Modesto home value is $443,952.
Modesto is close enough to San Francisco to make a hybrid job feasible — around 90 miles. The city has historic museums and plenty of activities for kids. The city has a trampoline park, bowling alleys, escape rooms and Funworks Modesto, a park filled with activities like kart racing, indoor parks with slides and other activities.
Manufacturing is one of the top components of Modesto’s economy. If Trump’s tariff plans go fully into effect, there could be a boost in demand for domestic products, which could help the city attract more workers and potentially increase wages, making the cost of living more affordable.
Modesto is also a national center for food and beverage production. E&J Gallo, the world’s largest winery franchise, has its headquarters located in Modesto.
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
Editor’s note: Average home values were sourced from Zillow and are accurate as of Feb. 7, 2025.
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