How the Economies Fared In 7 Battleground States Under Trump’s Presidency

The U.S. economy under former President Donald Trump was neither as robust as he claims or as bad as some critics suggest. Americans enjoyed decent job and GDP growth during the first three years of his term, but that came to a screeching halt in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. These trends applied to the nation as a whole, as well as battleground states that will play a big role in who wins the 2024 presidential election.

A 2021 Bloomberg analysis found that GDP growth under Trump lagged every other post-World War II president. The pandemic was partly to blame. But even without taking that into consideration, Trump’s handling of the economy was “not a stellar performance.”

Bloomberg cited U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing that the U.S. economy grew by 1.6% during Trump’s 2017-2020 term in office. That was much lower than most of the 11 other presidents listed.

The only other president with growth below 2% was George W. Bush, who presided over the worst financial collapse since the Great Depression. Two presidents oversaw GDP growth above 5% — John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson. Most oversaw GDP growth between about 2.5% and 3.5%.

The role presidents play in the economy is often overstated because so many other forces are at work – including luck. In Trump’s case, he had the bad luck to occupy the White House when COVID spread around the world.

Of the seven major battleground states in this year’s election – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – only Arizona had positive GDP growth in 2020. The other six saw a decline in GDP, according to data from Statista.

“Trump didn’t always rise to the challenges posed by COVID-19,” Bloomberg noted in its 2021 analysis. “But thanks in part to legislation he signed and a vaccine-development program his administration put in motion, the U.S. economy has experienced one of the world’s quicker recoveries.”

Out of the battleground states, Pennsylvania fared the worst under Trump economically. The Keystone State’s highest yearly GDP growth was only 1.3% in 2018, per Statista. Arizona and Nevada fared the best, with both of those states enjoying growth of at least 3.4% a year before COVID hit.

Here is how each battleground state’s GDP performed during Trump’s four years in office, according to Statista.

Leading industries:  Real estate/rental/leasing; manufacturing; healthcare/social assistance

Annual GDP growth:

2017: +4.2%

2018:  +4.0%

2019:  +3.8%

2020:  +0.8%

Leading industries: Finance/insurance; real estate/rental/leasing; professional/business services

Annual GDP growth: 

2017:  +3.4%

2018:  +3.0%

2019:  +3.3%

2020:  -3.0%

Leading industries: Manufacturing; finance/insurance; real estate/rental/leasing

Annual GDP growth:  

2017:  +1.2%

2018:  +2.3%

2019:  +0.2%

2020:  -3.0%

Leading industries: Lotteries/casinos/hotels; credit card issuance; hospitals

Annual GDP growth: 

2017:  +4.0%

2018:  +3.4%

2019:  +4.1%

2020:  -7.4%

Leading industries: Finance/insurance; real estate/rental/leasing; manufacturing

Annual GDP growth: 

2017:  +2.5%

2018:  +1.8%

2019:  +2.1%

2020:  -0.6%

Leading industries: Health/medical insurance; colleges/universities; drug/cosmetic/toiletry wholesaling

Annual GDP growth: 

2017:  +0.9%

2018:  +1.3%

2019:  +1.1%

2020:  -4.7%

Leading industries: Life insurance/annuities; health/medical insurance; dairy product production

Annual GDP growth: 

2017:  0.0%

2018:  +2.2%

2019:  +1.5%

2020:  -3.2%

Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.