Trump vs. Harris: Here’s Who Americans Think Will Be Better for the Economy and Inflation

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With the upcoming presidential election, many Americans are concerned about how the next U.S. president will impact the economy, particularly in regard to inflation.

“Historically, new administrations have had limited influence over inflation in the short term,” said Lauryn Grayes, founder of Wealth Gems Financial. “However, the types of policies pursued can impact inflation over time.”

With the current most likely candidates being Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the question now on everyone’s mind is this: Who will be better for the economy and inflation? To get a better idea of what people are thinking, GOBankingRates conducted a survey of over 1,000 American adults.

Here’s who Americans think will be better for the U.S. economy and inflation, as well as their main concerns during this election cycle.

Which Presidential Candidate’s Policies Could Most Benefit the Economy?

According to our survey, here’s who Americans think will benefit the economy the most if elected president in November:

• 38.55% of respondents believe that Donald Trump will be better for the economy;
• 43.82% of respondents believe that Kamala Harris will be better for the economy;
• 3.39% of respondents were more ambivalent, saying that either candidate could be equally good for the economy;
• 6.57% of those surveyed indicated that they don’t think either candidate will be good for the economy;
• 7.67% of respondents weren’t sure who would be better.

Responses were further broken down by age:

• Ages 18 to 24: More respondents said they think Trump will be better for the economy (40% versus 37%);
• Ages 25 to 34: The majority think Harris will benefit the economy more (44% versus 37%);
• Ages 35 to 44: Most respondents believe Harris will be better for the economy (44% versus 37%);
• Ages 55 to 64: Approximately 44% of respondents think Harris will be better for the economy (compared to the 36% who selected Trump);
• Ages 65-plus: The gap was a little smaller here, but the majority of people said they think Harris’s policies will be better for the economy (47% versus 41%).

Ultimately, more respondents ages 25 and up said they think Kamala Harris would be better for the economy. More younger respondents — ages 18 to 24 — said the opposite, though the majority who picked Trump over Harris was small.

Responses were broken down further by gender:

• 35% of women believe Trump’s policies will benefit the economy better, while 43% believe Harris is the better choice;
• 42% of men said Trump’s policies will likely benefit the economy more, while 45% think Harris is the better choice.

Americans’ Biggest Concerns This Election Cycle

In the GOBankingRates survey, Americans were also asked about which economic and finance-related issues are most important to them during the 2024 election cycle. These are the overall results.

Inflation: 49.20%

Inflation is by far the No. 1 concern many Americans face this year. This might not come as a surprise considering how much inflation affects the cost of living.

The Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate is 2%, as this can lead to price stability. With higher inflation comes more expensive services and goods, as well as reduced purchasing power — particularly when wages don’t increase proportionately.

While the president doesn’t control inflation, they can have an impact on it.

“For example, large increases in government spending not matched by tax increases could spur demand-pull inflation,” said Grayes. “Restrictive trade policies may also lead to higher consumer prices.”

On the other hand, Grayes noted that any policies that promote production and economy efficiency can help regulate inflation.

Social Security and Medicare: 26.89%

The next-highest concern many Americans face is in regard to Social Security and Medicare. Both of these programs are facing a funding deficit in the next decade. If no significant changes are made, people who rely on these programs could face some significant financial consequences — i.e., reduced financial support.

Under the Biden-Harris administration, the goal is to extend Social Security’s solvency by getting higher-income earners to pay more taxes — their “fair share” as it’s worded in The White House brief. The president’s budget is also designed to extend and strengthen Medicare.

It’s unclear if Harris will continue to support these initiatives if elected, but if she does, this could prove beneficial for those who rely on these programs for financial stability.

Other Key Economic/Financial Concerns

The other major concerns many Americans face are:

• Government spending: 9.06%
• Healthcare costs: 7.97%
• Unemployment: 6.87%

As with inflation, Social Security and Medicare, the president can have both an indirect and a direct impact in these areas.

According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, government spending has minimal to no impact on inflation. It’s possible that a 10% increase in government spending could actually result in a 0.08% decline in inflation.

Next up is healthcare costs. These have risen significantly over the years. According to the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, the cost of medical care — including services, medication, medical equipment and insurance — has gone up by 121.3% since 2000. During that period, inflation rose by 86.1%.

As for unemployment, when inflation levels rise, unemployment levels typically drop. The inverse is also true — higher unemployment comes about during times of lower inflation. Right now, the national unemployment rate is 4.3% as per BLS data.

Regardless of who is elected president, Grayes had the following to say: “As an economist focused on small business growth, I believe the next president should prioritize policies that directly support entrepreneurs and small companies.”

This kind of support could create more job opportunities, decrease unemployment and help ease the financial burden many Americans face — depending on the wages these new positions bring.

Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.

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