4 Ways a Trump Win Could Impact Rural Economies
Written by
Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy
Edited by
Ashley Barnett
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A November win for former president and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump could have wide-ranging economic implications for the country, including effects on rural economies.
Trump’s running mate JD Vance’s Appalachian roots help bring this part of the economy to the forefront of economic discussions.
These policies could also impact the election, as 15% of rural battleground voters are reportedly undecided in the presidential race, “far more than enough to swing the election,” according to a recent Rural Democracy Initiative survey.
According to experts, here are some ways a Trump-Vance win could impact rural economies.
Bring Renewed Federal Focus to Rural Economy
Because of Vance’s rural roots, some experts argue that it’s natural to think that a Trump/Vance win might lead to a new federal focus on rural economies.
For instance, selling federal land, as Trump has proposed, could help rural development, said Jason Sorens, a senior economist at the American Institute for Economic Research. He added that another boost for these communities could come by bringing down energy costs through new supply.
Tariffs Could Hurt These Communities
Yet, Sorens also noted that some of Trump’s policies would hurt rural communities.
“America is an agricultural exporter,” he said. “So Trump’s proposed tariffs increase will hurt farm exports, both because of retaliation by other countries and because tariffs cause investment and labor to flow from exporting to import-competing industries.”
In addition, he argued that people talk a lot about the “farm bill,” but the reality is that American agriculture does not need subsidies to survive and thrive.
In December 2018, Trump signed the Agriculture Improvement Act, also known as the “farm bill,” into law.
“The farm bill helps marginal crops at the expense of the economy in general,” added Sorens.
Deporting Immigrants Would Reduce the Workforce
Trump’s campaign platform emphasizes reducing migration into the United States and deporting undocumented immigrants in the United States.
But, as immigrants have accounted for a significant share of population growth in rural communities over the past several decades, these efforts could reduce the workforce in rural communities and make rural migrant workers less likely to seek out health care services due to fears tied to deportation, said Timothy Callaghan, an associate professor, Department of health law, policy and management at Boston University, and editor and author of “Rural Healthy People 2030.“
“These efforts could additionally reduce the rural workforce in the areas of agriculture, meat packing, and dairy processing, putting stress on our food systems in both rural and urban communities,” said Callaghan.
Trade Agreements and Increased Infrastructure Development Could Be Beneficial
On the other hand, some experts have noted that some of Trump’s policies could help rural communities. For instance, Adam Ferrari, CEO of Phoenix Capital Group, noted that Trump’s calls for enhancing America’s infrastructure could benefit them.
“Investing in new infrastructure to include roads, bridges, and broadband could create access to services, fix transportation issues, and lay the groundwork for future economic growth for rural regions,” said Ferrari.
Regarding agricultural policy and trade agreements, Trump has talked of better trade relations and advocated for farmers’ industry in America, according to Ferrari.
“Were Trump/Vance to assume the presidency, few key policies that could come in handy for the preservation of the interest of rural farmers are stable markets for the U.S. farm produce, and better trade terms as an aspect of strengthening the rural economy that relies on agriculture significantly,” he said.
Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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