Social Security: The Best and Worst Scenarios If Trump Wins the Election
Written by
Angela Mae
Edited by
Chris Cluff
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The future of Social Security is — and has been — in question for quite some time now. According to the Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees, Social Security is expected to become insolvent (barring any major policy changes) by 2035.
What this means is that it will be able to pay roughly 79% of the scheduled benefits, as opposed to the full amount. The system should stabilize at that point, but this still could have a widespread — potentially devastating — impact on many Americans.
“A decrease in benefits is not a survivable option for benefit recipients, given the already low amount of fiscal support they are receiving,” said Makini Chisolm-Straker, a former White House Fellow. “All ethical Congress members and future presidents need to support [the Social Security Administration’s] work of securing the financial security of the nation’s people.”
With the election just around the corner, many people are wondering what the successful candidate will do to bolster Social Security. Here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for what might happen if Donald Trump gets elected. These scenarios also could apply to a Kamala Harris presidency.
Best-Case Scenario
Colin Ruggiero, co-founder at DisabilityGuidance.org, believes the best-case scenario for Social Security would be for the economy to improve, which could also lead to more jobs and higher wages.
“This would create an increase in taxes being taken out towards Social Security trust funds,” he said. “Unfortunately, this is easier said than done and is not likely to be a catch-all solution to the issue.”
So, then, what would be the more likely scenario?
“I believe the next likely scenario would be an increase in Social Security payroll taxes on people making larger salaries — over $168,600 a year,” Ruggiero said. “This would ensure that wealthier people are paying a more fair share towards Social Security.”
Kelly Gilbert, owner at EFG Financial, also believes it’s unlikely for a “best-case” scenario — at least at this point.
“Unfortunately, there is no best-case scenario yet,” he said. “Social Security reform is needed badly, but it is the third rail for politicians, making it too charged of a topic for them to discuss. Anyone who proposes a fix for Social Security is demonized by their rivals.”
Worst-Case Scenario
As for the worst-case scenario after the next president is elected, both Ruggiero and Gilbert had similar thoughts: that no major changes would actually occur.
“The worst-case scenario is probably the most probable,” Gilbert said. “After the election, it is likely nothing will be fixed and the proverbial can will be kicked down the road for another term.”
Ruggiero added that, in doing nothing, it likely would put the country closer to the Social Security fund’s estimated depletion date of (or before) 2035.
That said, Ruggiero did suggest another possible “worst-case scenario” outcome for the program, and that’s privatization.
“There are too many risk factors to count when it comes to privatization,” he said. “Market conditions, financial literacy, new government bureaucracy and threats to current disability/death insurance programs are just some of the many reasons why this would be bad for Americans.”
Impact of Social Security for Americans
Whatever happens after the election, one thing’s for sure: Anything less than a reform could have a disastrous effect on the American population.
According to the Social Security Administration, 70.6 million people received benefits in 2022. That’s roughly 21% of the population.
Along with this, the average monthly benefit amount for retired workers was $1,920 in August 2024. While this amount is likely to increase by the program’s anticipated insolvency, a 21% reduction right now would be roughly $403. This would reduce the benefit amount to $1,516.
Last but not least, roughly half of those age 65 and older — typical retirees — get at least 50% of their total household income from Social Security. A quarter of this demographic gets 90% of their household income from Social Security.
If the program loses some of its funding, it could cause many Americans to have to work longer or add to the financial burden that many already face.
Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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