Is Social Security Drying Up Faster Under Trump? Money Experts Weigh In
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Josephine Nesbit
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Cory Dudak
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Americans were voicing their concerns about Social Security long before President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) was signed into law in July.
Every year, the Social Security Administration (SSA) updates its estimates on depletion dates for trust funds. According to the latest Social Security Trustees’ Report, trust fund reserves could be depleted by 2033 if no changes are made.
But that date could be moved yet again. Here’s what experts had to say about Social Security and Trump’s new bill.
Will Big Beautiful Bill Accelerate Depletion of Funds?
“It depends on the precise structure of the bill, but any legislation that reduces payroll tax revenue — such as proposals to cut or eliminate the payroll tax — would undoubtedly hasten the depletion of Social Security’s trust funds,” Michael Liner, head disability attorney and founder at Liner Legal in Cleveland, Ohio, wrote in an email.
Social Security is funded largely through payroll taxes, so reducing that revenue threatens the program’s long-term solvency. Scott Caufield, CFA, CPA and founder of Sophos Wealth Management in Washington, also believes the BBB will speed up insolvency.
According to Caufield, the two big drivers are the $6,000 temporary tax deduction for seniors age 65 and older and the temporary increase of state and local tax deductions (SALT) to $40,000. “Both of those deductions will decrease seniors’ taxable income on average, which in turn will decrease the amount of Social Security benefits subject to tax,” Caufield wrote in an email. “That will decrease Social Security’s revenues in the upcoming years and bring that insolvency date forward.”
The SSA’s chief actuary, Karen Glenn, also stated that the BBB will increase program costs by $168.6 billion between 2025 and 2034, which will accelerate Social Security’s insolvency by a year, Caufield noted.
“Without a clear and reliable replacement funding mechanism, removing or diminishing these contributions compromises the system’s financial integrity,” Liner added.
What Would It Mean for Current Beneficiaries?
Unless Congress intervenes, Liner claimed current beneficiaries may face benefit reductions. “The SSA estimates that once reserves are exhausted, incoming tax revenue would only cover about 75% to 80% of scheduled benefits,” Liner wrote. “That would result in across-the-board cuts unless lawmakers take corrective action, either by increasing revenue, cutting benefits or both.”
According to a survey conducted by The Senior Citizens League, two-thirds of seniors rely on Social Security for more than half of their income. “A 20% reduction in monthly payments could mean the difference between paying for essential medications or not, between housing stability and homelessness,” Liner claimed.
How Might It Affect Future Retirees?
Future retirees are likely to receive a lower percentage of pre-retirement income from Social Security while also bearing the burden of system uncertainty, Liner explained.
“Younger workers may begin to question whether the program will even exist by the time they retire, which could erode trust in the system,” he added. “This creates a dangerous psychological shift. If people believe Social Security won’t be there for them, they may disengage from supporting reforms or fail to plan appropriately.”
However, many also believe Congress will take action between now and the impending insolvency.
“It seems like the most politically palatable solution would include an increase in payroll taxes, an increase to the cap on income subject to payroll taxes and some forms of means testing,” Caufield wrote. “That means the higher income households should expect to pay more in taxes and receive less in future (or potentially current) benefits.”
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