Stimulus Checks in the Form of Tax Refunds? What the Pros Are Saying Is Possible
Written by
Jennifer Taylor
Edited by
Rebekah Evans
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Extra money might be headed your way from the federal government. This could take a few different forms in 2026, but your tax refund will likely be the starting point. Find out below what you can expect and what the pros are saying is actually possible.
Also wanting to know more about potential stimulus checks? Find out more here.
Larger Tax Returns as a Stimulus?
In 2025, the IRS refunded a total of $328.88 billion to taxpayers — as of Dec. 26, 2025 — according to the IRS. The average tax refund was $3,167.
These numbers are predicted to be significantly higher in 2026, according to the a press release from the U.S. House Committee on Ways & Means.
Specifically, the IRS is expected to refund $370 billion to taxpayers. Families will likely receive an additional $1,000 in their refund compared to the 2025 filing season.
This is largely due to new tax laws implemented under the One Big Beautiful Bill — i.e., no income tax on tips or overtime work — as the IRS didn’t update withholding tables for tax year 2025 related to the new law. This means workers’ paychecks may have largely stayed the same, but tax refunds may serve as a windfall of sorts, according to CNBC.
Touted as a stimulus of sorts, the Ways & Means press release praised the larger tax returns for giving families more money to pay for essentials like groceries, doctor bills, school supplies and summer activities.
Larger tax refunds are just the latest instance of stimulus talks.
In 2025 President Trump floated the idea of giving U.S. households a $5,000 rebate check as part of Elon Musk’s DOGE spending cuts, as reported by PBS. He also told the New York Times he plans to distribute $2,000 tariff rebate checks to Americans by the end of 2026.
If you’re confused by these potential stimulus payments, you’re not alone. Even tax professionals aren’t sure how this would work, but expect it could be complicated.
What Are the Pros Saying?
From an administrative perspective, formally distributing stimulus checks as a tax refund would potentially be more complex, said Rob Burnette, investment advisor representative and professional tax preparer at Outlook Financial Center.
“Integrating two tax payment systems will generate its own complexity, paper trail and documentation,” he said. “The tax documentation and tracking when stimulus checks were issued a few years ago was a mess and created more work for tax preparation.”
It’s also likely every taxpayer wouldn’t receive a refund, so he said that could also be an issue.
As for the whether the next round of stimulus checks themselves will be taxed to the individual, that’s also currently unknown, said Joshua Chananie, certified public accountant (CPA) and partner at SAX, an accounting, tax and advisory firm.
“We assume though that the taxability of these funds would be treated similar to the stimulus checks received in 2020 and 2021, which was not taxable,” he said. “At their core, the purpose of these payments is to put cash back in the hands of the individual to help with everyday living expenses, so a taxable component would defeat that purpose.”
Only time will tell if your tax refund will serve as a stimulus of sorts — and if a formal stimulus check will come your way in 2026.
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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