Boomers Will Sell 9 Million Homes by 2035 — 7 States With the Best Bargains
Written by
Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy
Edited by
Chris Cluff
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There will be 9.2 million fewer boomer homeowner households by 2035, according to a recent Freddie Mac analysis. Given that the housing market is facing a shortage of available single-family homes, the housing decisions this cohort will make in the coming years may have a significant impact.
Indeed, some experts said this will represent a “silver tsunami” as aging boomers look to sell their homes, flooding the market with inventory. Yet, Freddie Mac described the phenomenon as more akin to a silver tide, “bringing a gradual exit that will mostly be offset by new entrants.”
To put this in context, a recent Realtor.com report noted that while the number of homes for sale has been recovering from pandemic-era lows thanks to a surge of new construction, the market is still missing up to a whopping 7.2 million homes, “the result of more than a decade of underbuilding relative to population growth.”
Realtor.com economic research analyst, Hannah Jones said that areas with a high share of 65+ homeowners may see more inventory come online as these owners choose to move or downsize. However, she noted that a recent survey of 60+ homeowners by Fannie Mae suggests that more than half of respondents feel emotionally or financially ‘locked-in’ to their home, and do not plan to sell.
Yet, this fresh influx of inventory could help some homebuyers, especially in a few states, where they could find bargains. So, where might the best bargains be?
Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire and West Virginia
Jones said that on average, roughly 22.5% of households in the U.S. are occupied by homeowners aged 65 and older.
In comparison, in West Virginia, it’s 28.7%; in Delaware, it’s 27%; in South Carolina, it’s 26.1%; and in Maine, it’s 25.9%.
“Of the states that see an elevated 65+ homeowner occupied household share, West Virginia and South Carolina boast the most affordable median listing prices,” she said.
Indeed, she noted that according to the latest data from February 2024, the typical home in West Virginia was priced at $231,000, and the median listing price in South Carolina was $350,000.
As for inventory, West Virginia and Delaware, which round out the top three 65+ homeowner concentrations along with Florida, both saw inventory levels roughly 60% below five years ago in February.
Northeast, Chicago and the Midwest
Joe Camberato, CEO of National Business Capital said he’d beton colder regions such as the Northeast, Chicago and the Midwest.
“After enduring years of harsh winters, it’s only natural for older adults to seek warmer climates down south,” he said.
Florida
According to Jason Sorens, Ph.D., economist for the American Institute for Economic Research, Florida is one of the states with the largest over-60 populations, as a percentage of the total population.
Yet, “because Florida is an attractive retirement destination, “we shouldn’t expect the decline of boomer households to open too many housing units there,” he noted, however.
New York
In other markets, such as New York City, the shift could also change the type of housing that’s available.
“The baby boomer generation in New York City owns some of the most desirable apartments in the most coveted co-op buildings in the city,” Kate Wollman-Mahan, a real estate agent at Coldwell Banker Warburg, told U.S. News & World Report. “A lot of the best Park Avenue and Fifth Avenue prewar co-ops are owned by homeowners who are currently in their late 70s or 80s. As these apartments start to come to market, not only will it increase inventory in these desired locations, but it presents real value play opportunities for buyers.”
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