ChatGPT Answers What Trump’s 50-Year Mortgages Could Mean for Home Prices
Written by
G. Brian Davis
Edited by
Cory Dudak
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In November, President Trump proposed a 50-year mortgage loan in a post on Truth Social. But would a 50-year mortgage affect housing prices in the short, medium and long-term?
I asked ChatGPT 5.1, and then a series of finance experts, for their thoughts. The human experts confirmed every point the AI made — but added a few nuances the chatbot missed.
Buyer Purchasing Power and Prices Would Spike
Longer loan terms mean lower monthly payments. “Most homebuyers price their offers based on the monthly payment they can afford,” noted Sam May, area manager for All Western Mortgage.
Buyers could afford to offer a higher purchase offer than they can currently with a 30-year mortgage. So they would, which would of course drive up home prices. “The problem is buyers won’t actually get more house; they’ll just pay more for the same house they’re buying,” added May.
Wealth Inequality Would Widen
Soaring prices may not help buyers, but certainly help existing homeowners. They get to see their home equity skyrocket virtually overnight. Of course, they’d also have to pay more for their replacement home if they bought a new one. Or they could simply rent and pocket the windfall.
Long-Term Debt Burden Increases
Home prices rise, keeping monthly payments equivalent, but now owners end up with five decades of debt commitment.
Finance professor Charles Urquhart, founder of Fixed Income Resources, explained how this affects homeowners in real terms. “Because they pay down their principal balance so much more slowly, they grow less wealth over time,” he said. “Households carrying mortgage debt for longer would also have less of a buffer to fall back on, without home equity as a financial shock absorber.”
Greater Housing Bubble Risk
ChatGPT noted that because home prices would inflate beyond current economic fundamentals, bubble risk multiplies.
Carlos Scarpero, mortgage broker at Scarpero.com highlighted a related risk. “The possibility of homeowners becoming upside-down on their loan would go up exponentially.” If a housing bubble burst, it would leave many homeowners deep in the hole and unable to sell.
What ChatGPT Missed
Business professor Arie Brish of St. Edwards University pointed out two other consequences of 50-year mortgages. First, banks would charge higher interest rates, given the higher risk. Between higher bubble risk and homeowners building equity so much slower adding the risk of borrowers becoming upside-down, banks would have to charge higher interest.
Brish noted the more subtle political angle, however. “Housing makes up 25% to 30% of the CPI inflation figure, and it’s not based on the price of the house, but rather the rental equivalent,” he explained. “Temporarily lower rent equivalents would drive the CPI downward, which would make incumbent politicians look good in the next major election cycle.” And that says nothing of the boost to existing homeowners’ equity and the perceived new affordability among homebuyers.
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