Tampa and 9 Florida Cities Where Homes Could Plummet in Value in 2025

What might happen next with the Florida housing market? According to a December 2024 YouTube video from Reventure Consulting, several cities could see home prices dip in The Sunshine State. This could potentially lead to a “cataclysmic decline” in the Florida 2025 housing market.

Using a combination of data sourced from Realtor.com, Zillow and the Reventure app, Reventure Consulting was able to determine 10 cities where home prices are anticipated to drop the most. Ranked from 10 to 1, the highest amount of housing market crashes could occur in these 10 Florida cities.

Inventory and supply are working against these two areas, as Reventure Consulting said inventory has been increasing by 80% year over year in Fort Lauderdale. Similarly, inventory is spiking in Broward County. 

Several factors, including expensive HOA fees and property insurance costs, are said to be forcing residents to sell their homes and condominiums. The average homeowners insurance premium in Florida, according to Reuters, has skyrocketed by 60% since 2019. As a result, rising insurance premiums are driving down Florida home prices.

While active listings are up to 5,400 homes on the market in Hillsborough County, home values have declined by 0.3% in recent months. 

“The average declines understate the price cuts we’re now seeing across much of Tampa,” said a Reventure Consulting spokesperson in the video. “Investors are now liquidating properties and taking a 20% loss from what they bought it for two years ago.”

Data presented in the video indicates that prices in Duval County are 26% overvalued compared to their long run norms. 

These home prices are dropping on a month-over-month basis because there are around 4,000 homes for sale. According to Reventure Consulting, this is the highest level of inventory in Jacksonville in 10 years.

Housing inventory is up more than 4,000 homes in Sarasota, at its highest level in nearly a decade. 

A similarly concerning issue is that homes on the market have now spiked to 91 days — also at the highest level within the last decade. This spike indicates there are fewer buyers and more sellers in Florida right now.

The Reventure Consulting spokesperson refers to Marion County as an example of where three years ago, there were 800 homes for sale. Today, this number has jumped to nearly 3,000. Aside from the number of homes for sale in Ocala being at the highest level within the last seven years, the excess supply is almost 50% above what it was pre-pandemic.

What about the number of days that homes are still on the market? This is up to 68 days in Marion County. In addition to the higher home inventory, the same supply is now sitting on the market for the longest it has in the past seven years.

Port St. Lucie is considered the most overvalued area in Florida. Home prices are overvalued by 41%, indicative of price downside. 

According to the Reventure app’s Price Forecast Score for Port St. Lucie, the Florida county ranks at 37 out of 100. This indicates downward price pressure thanks to the high amount of housing inventory and homes sitting on the market for lengthy amounts of time.

Home prices are already declining in these two areas and values are down 5% year over year in both cities. Home values are expected to keep dropping thanks to the excess inventory of homes for sale. There are 9,600 homes on the market in Lee County alone.

There are 5,600 homes for sale on the market in Pinellas County — the highest level in the last seven to eight years. The best guess from Reventure Consulting is this inventory will continue to increase.

Lakeland differs from most of the Florida cities mentioned on this list because it’s not on the coast or impacted by hurricanes. It is an area, however, where builders pulled over 200,000 permits in 2022 to build new properties and where a reduced demand environment is leading to declining home values. Data presented in the video shows home values are down by 2% month over month in Polk County. 

“I suspect those value drops will accelerate into the future due to the biggest wall of inventory I have seen in the U.S. housing market of any large county,” said the Reventure Consulting spokesperson in the video. “There are now 4,800 homes on the market for sale in Lakeland. Prior to the pandemic, it was only 3,000.”

South of Orlando is Osceola County, where home values have been declining thanks to a massive inventory and builders developing a huge pipeline of homes. Prior to the pandemic, there were only 2,200 homes for sale and now there are 3,800 and counting.