2024 Election: Why 10 States Hit Hardest by Inflation Are Critical to Biden and Trump
Written by
Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy
Edited by
Nicholas Morine
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The presidential election is around the corner, and inflation — at 3.3% in May, according to the latest consumer price index (CPI) data released June 12 — is top of mind and a hot-button issue for many Americans. And now, some states hardest hit by high prices could weigh heavily on the outcome.
To put this issue in context, according to a recent Data for Progress survey, 27% of voters said that “the economy, jobs, and inflation” are their top priorities when deciding their vote. Among these respondents, 51% cited inflation as their primary concern within this category.
Against this backdrop, a new National Business Capital study shows that 10 states hit hardest by inflation are critical to both Biden and Trump.
Why Would These Hardest-Hit States Be Critical?
The new study found that these states include more than 40% of the total U.S. population and represent 199 of the 270 electoral votes needed for either President Joe Biden or Donald Trump to win. In other words, this demographic represents 74% of the total electoral vote to cement the win, according to the study.
In turn, the study found that “if residents in these states voted solely based on inflation, their candidate would be virtually certain to win the presidency.”
Chris Motola, special projects editor for National Business Capital, argued that these findings were “not entirely surprising.”
“What was more of a revelation was just how much of the population lives in the most highly distressed states,” said Motola. “Most of these states are wealthy and highly influential but, regardless of political alignment, aren’t managing the crisis very effectively.”
According to him, there are, of course, other issues and concerns for voters that may override inflation. However, this is the big news story, affecting people’s wallets, and it’s been that way for a while.
Which States Are the Hardest Hit by Inflation?
According to the study, the states most impacted by inflation include California, New York, Florida, Georgia and Texas — these states represent a third of the total U.S. population. Other impacted states? Louisiana, South Carolina, Hawaii, Alaska and Oklahoma.
“In the case of California and New York, they got hit by some of the biggest price increases and saw substantial declines in real personal income coming out of the pandemic,” said Motola.
He added that the story’s a little different in the Southern states which made the list.
“You don’t see quite the same level of price increases — although they’ve still been substantial — or as severe a decline in real personal income, but consumers in those states appear to be having a harder time absorbing the effects of inflation with more reported household budget stress and credit card delinquency,” he added.
Why Could These States Be ‘Game Changers’?
According to Motola, while most of these states aren’t swing states — with the notable exception of Georgia — they are major media markets and can shape the narrative.
“The amount of pain out there is substantial, and we may see some surprising margins even in non-swing states, and in the popular vote,” he said. “I think it’s a big reason why the race is as competitive as it is, especially given Biden’s incumbent advantage and all of the legal issues surrounding Trump.”
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