6 States Where Middle-Class Paychecks Could Suffer If Kamala Harris Wins in November
Written by
Laura Beck
Edited by
Gary Dudak
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As Election Day approaches, middle-class Americans are wondering how their wallets might be affected. While a Kamala Harris victory could impact workers across the nation, experts suggested that residents of certain states might face more challenges to their paychecks.
GOBankingRates spoke with financial experts to uncover which states could see middle-class paychecks take a hit if Harris wins in November.
Texas and Florida: Business-Friendly States Might Face Challenges
Cliff Ambrose, FRC, founder and wealth manager at Apex Wealth, pointed to states with business-friendly policies as potentially vulnerable.
“In states like Texas and Florida, middle-class paychecks might not do as well if Kamala Harris wins,” Ambrose said.
He explained the potential impact: “While her policies are focused on helping working families, potential tax increases on businesses could slow job growth or lead to fewer wage increases in these states. Both Texas and Florida have economies that rely on business-friendly policies, and any changes to federal tax laws could affect middle-class workers indirectly by limiting economic opportunities or increasing the cost of doing business.”
That said, economic analysts claimed that Harris’s approach focuses on supporting lower- and middle-class families and small businesses, with the costs offset by tax increases on the wealthy and corporations. Harris has proposed several initiatives aimed at helping middle-income Americans, including measures to make housing more affordable, reduce child care costs, crack down on price gouging, and lower prescription drug expenses.
While these policies might face challenges in states like Texas and Florida, they could potentially provide significant relief to middle-class families struggling with rising costs in various sectors, ultimately leading to improved economic outcomes for this demographic across the entire country.
California: Tech and Entertainment Industries Potentially at Risk
While California is Harris’ home state, Rene Lacad, a 28-year-old entrepreneur, suggested it might not be totally immune to some negative impacts.
“If taxes are increased on companies and rich individuals, like those in the technology and entertainment fields, there is a possibility it could reduce investments and hinder economic expansion which can impact job prospects for the middle class,” he explained.
This potential slowdown in some industries might mean fewer job opportunities and slower wage growth for middle-class workers in California.
New Jersey and Maryland: Tax Cut Expiration Concerns
Brandon Galici, CFP and founder of Galici Financial, shared concerns for states with higher median incomes, such as New Jersey and Maryland. He explained that if the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expires under a Harris administration, it could lead to higher tax burdens for middle-class families in these states.
Galici provided an example: “A married couple with a household income of $75,000 would pay $1,105 more in federal income tax if the TCJA sunset at the end of 2025.”
Of course, an increase would hit people in states with a higher cost of living the hardest.
Massachusetts: Manufacturing Sector Uncertainties
Ben Johnston, COO of Kapitus, said while Harris supports investment in green manufacturing, there could be short-term disruptions.
“Vice President Harris… has directed government funds toward infrastructure improvements, green manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing by passing the Infrastructure Bill, the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPs Act,” Johnston explained.
However, he said that these changes could lead to “disruption to the global supply chain, threatening many U.S. jobs at manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers who rely on the global supply chain to source the components, raw materials and finished products they sell.”
This could potentially impact middle-class workers in manufacturing-heavy states like Massachusetts.
The Final Word
Two things are very important but unsaid in this process: First, campaign promises don’t always translate into actual policies; and second, any significant changes would need to get through Congress first, which often takes time and involves compromise.
The economy is also a complex thing, not singularly dictated by any one thing.
As November approaches (and it feels like it’s coming fast!), all Americans should stay informed about potential policy changes. Being prepared is always a good bet, no matter who is in the White House.
Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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