Trump’s State of the Union: What His Claims on Inflation, Jobs and Growth Got Wrong (and Right) for Your Wallet
Written by
Vance Cariaga
Edited by
Jenna Klaverweiden
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President Donald Trump spent part of this week’s State of the Union address lauding the economy under his administration. As expected, reactions were mixed.
What did Trump get wrong (and right) about inflation, jobs and economic growth when it comes to your wallet? Here’s a look.
Also see what Trump’s global tariff proposal could mean for your wallet.
Inflation
Trump boasted that “inflation is plummeting” on his watch. While the rate of inflation has moderated, the term “plummeting” might be a stretch.
As an analysis from Poynter noted, overall inflation in January 2026 rose 2.4% from the previous year. That was down from the rate when Trump took office a year earlier, but by then, inflation had already dropped from its peak of 9.2% in mid-2022, when President Joe Biden was in office. The inflation rate had eased to 2.9% when Biden left office.
The wild card is what Trump’s tariff policy will look like after the Supreme Court recently ruled against it. During the speech, Trump called the ruling “unfortunate” and has vowed to impose global tariffs of 10% or higher through executive orders.
If he succeeds in imposing those tariffs, it could lead to higher prices. “With tariffs firmly in place, American households will continue to feel the pinch of high prices on most of their day-to-day purchases,” Selma Hepp, Ph.D., chief economist of Cotality, wrote in an email note shared with GOBankingRates.
Jobs
Trump claimed that “more Americans are working today than at any time in the history of our country.” This is technically true, but it also needs context.
According to the Labor Department, a total of 584,000 jobs were created in 2025, NBC News reported. That was down from the post-pandemic job creation of more than 2 million in both 2024 and 2023. In fact, the 2025 total was the lowest since 2020.
As previously reported by GOBankingRates, while government data revealed better-than-expected job growth in January, a separate report from ADP found that January was a “lackluster month for hiring.”
Meanwhile, a recent report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas found that employers announced more than 1.2 million job cuts in 2025. That marked a 58% increase from the prior year and the highest level since 2020.
Growth
Part of Trump’s speech centered on economic growth, and much of that message was “relatively reassuring,” according to Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X.
“The speech highlighted interest in keeping existing trade deals, the potential for lower rates to encourage investment, continued interest in lower taxes, challenges on affordability, and the importance of innovation,” Helfstein wrote in a note shared with GOBankingRates. “This is still a good news story on growth and innovation in the economy despite recent negative sentiment.”
The economy has been growing, but maybe not as much as some would like.
GDP rose at a 2.2% pace in 2025, which was lower than the 2.8% in 2024, before Trump took office, CNBC reported. The latest monthly GDP report showed an annualized growth rate of 1.4%, which was quite a bit under Dow Jones’ estimate for a gain of 2.5%.
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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