2 Reasons Middle-Class Tax Refunds Might Feel More Like Stealth Stimulus Checks This Year
Written by
Cindy Lamothe
Edited by
Jenna Klaverweiden
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Tax season usually lands with all the excitement of a dentist appointment. You gather your forms, cross your fingers and hope the number at the end doesn’t ruin your mood. But this year? For a lot of middle-class households, that refund might hit a little differently.
Between stubborn grocery prices, still-weird housing costs and the general “Why is everything expensive?” vibe, even a routine tax refund can feel less like a bookkeeping correction and more like a surprise boost.
So what’s going on? Why might ordinary refunds feel a bit like lowkey stimulus checks? Let’s break down what’s behind the shift — and why it might matter more than you think.
Extended Tax Cuts, Bigger Refunds
According to Geoff Knight, founder and CEO of File Tax, large numbers of middle-class families may see higher tax refunds because different tax cuts have been extended and most employees had not altered the withholding on their paychecks to reflect the changes.
“When tax breaks are increased and the withholding is kept at the same level, the government gets more revenues than it is expected to collect throughout the year and returns the difference in a refund,” he said.
Knight explained that a rise in tax breaks without a rise in paychecks almost inevitably leads to larger refunds. “The government was essentially holding money all year long that belongs to the taxpayer,” he said.
Inflation Adjustments: The Invisible Stimulus
Knight explained that tax brackets and standard deductions are adjusted to reflect inflation every year, and the changes position real money back into the hands of middle-class filers.
“Majority of workers do not adjust their withholding to mirror these annual adjustments and therefore keep paying somewhat more in the form of taxes than required during the entire year,” he said.
These changes alone, he explained, can refund hundreds of dollars to a middle-income family with a yearly income between $75,000 and $150,000.
“Their refund is the sum of the overpayment of the preceding twelve months of excessive withholding,” he said.
What Taxpayers Should Do
If a larger-than-anticipated refund comes this season, Knight recommended utilizing a calculated plan instead of using it all at once.
“Take a portion of it to offset high interest debt, because this generates an instant assured financial result,” he said.
Then, put another into an emergency fund so that you will not rely on the tax refunds in the future as your financial cushion.
Finally, look ahead to next year. “Check your withholding so that next year you have more money in your own hand all through the year rather than a big lump sum refund,” Knight said.
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