How Much Money Will Be Needed To Be Middle Class by the End of Trump’s Presidency?
Written by
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Edited by
Zuri Anderson
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For a three-person household, the national middle income is between approximately $56,600 to $169,800 annually, according to The Pew Research Center. But these figures are anything but static, and the next four years will likely see the economy change significantly under President Trump. It makes you wonder how much money you will need to have to be considered middle class by 2029.
The idea of the middle class in the U.S. is highly indistinct. In San Francisco, it doesn’t take much income to keep a middle class lifestyle, but in Omaha, Nebraska, it does. According to Andrew Lokenauth, founder of TheFinanceNewsletter.com, regional differences are key to determining the income levels of the middle class. He explained that people in coastal cities might require incomes two to three times higher than in rural cities to be able to live the middle-income lifestyle.
Likely, in the years ahead, inflation, rising household and healthcare and student loan costs will impact middle-class income. This article, therefore, examines the factors that go into determining who constitutes the middle class and offers some projections based on what experts say are current trends.
Economic Factors That Will Determine the Middle Class in 2029
According to The New York Times, Trump’s administration is hoping for a 3% annual growth of the economy. Even so, if this goal were to be attained, it would potentially lift middle incomes, although it would then refile this growth among the income brackets.
The wealth gap between high and middle earners could widen, and the middle class would have to earn more to remain in the middle. Furthermore, when this economic expansion takes place, it will be at a moment in time when living costs will be on the rise and weighing heavily on the middle class.
Lokenauth predicted, based on current trends, the middle class could see annual increases in housing costs, healthcare premiums and childcare costs. This, of course, would mean that income necessary for middle-class status would necessarily have to rise much higher as these additional costs grow.Â
Other factors will be demographic: An aging population or a change in educational attainment. When the baby boomer generation retires, the composition of the workforce will change, potentially changing wage structure and income distribution.
Additionally, new high-paying jobs will be created quickly, and jobs will be replaced in other sectors, meaning middle-class incomes will be affected. And Trump’s policies will be central to these economic and technological shifts. Potentially these are tax reforms, trade agreements or health care changes that will change the financial landscape for middle-class Americans.
Projected Income Range for Middle Class by 2029
The exact income thresholds for middle-class status in 2029 are difficult to predict with certainty, but we can make some estimates based on current data and projections:
- According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the median household income in 2023 was $80,610, which is the most recent official data.
- The Congressional Budget Office projects average real household income will grow at an annual rate of 1.5% between 2019 and 2025.
Taking these trends a step further, we can extrapolate that the middle class household income would look to be $88,142 in 2029. Although the original projection was for 2025, this calculator accounts for compound growth over six years (2023 to 2029) at 1.5% annual growth that holds steady through 2029.Â
As of now, this U.S. Census Bureau data provides an accurate middle-income range by state and household size. However, here’s an overview of what the middle-income range might look like by the end of Trump’s presidency.
National Outlook
The national middle-income range for a three-person household could potentially reach:
- Lower bound: $65,000 to $70,000
- Upper bound: $195,000 to $200,000
This projection represents a significant increase from the current range of $56,600 to $169,800, accounting for anticipated economic growth and rising costs.
Regional Variations
The income required to maintain middle-class status will continue to vary widely across different regions:
- High-cost urban areas: The upper limit for middle-class income might exceed $250,000 for a family of three.
- Rural and lower-cost regions: These areas may see a range of $55,000 to $165,000 for the same family size.
These projections are not accurate, but are based on current trends and could change based on economic conditions, policy decisions and global events.
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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