Trump Said a Block of His Tariffs Will Cause ‘Economic Ruination’ — Is He Right? Experts Weigh In
Written by
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Edited by
Jenna Klaverweiden
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President Donald Trump issued a stark warning on Truth Social earlier this month, declaring that if courts block his tariffs, it would mean the “economic ruination” of the U.S. The Court of International Trade had previously blocked the action of using an emergency law to enact tariffs, per Fox Business. However, that ruling has since been paused.
The president argues that without his tariffs, America would face hostile foreign trade practices. But is Trump’s prediction grounded in economic reality, or does the evidence suggest a different outcome?
President Trump’s Claim of ‘Economic Ruination’
Trump’s “economic ruination” warning stems from his belief that tariffs are essential to protect against foreign retaliation, per The Economic Times. He has positioned his tariff policy as crucial for preventing other nations from imposing retaliatory measures that could devastate the U.S. economy.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff vision included a 10% duty on all imports and higher rates for select countries. He promised that these measures will revitalize American manufacturing, create jobs and generate federal revenue while reducing dependence on foreign goods.
What Does History Say?
Is President Trump’s claim that blocking his tariffs would lead to “economic ruination” supported by U.S. economic history?
The most notable example we have to look to is the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which raised U.S. tariffs on thousands of imports. According to the U.S. Senate’s official history, this move triggered widespread retaliation and deepened the Great Depression.
While that was a long time ago, many modern economists have also warned of tariffs’ negative impacts. FT Adviser explained that the ramifications of tariffs now could be more severe, as we now have an interconnected global financial system and supply chains.
That being said, “there are always legitimate goals behind tariffs,” FT Adviser reported. And the Trump administration believes these tariffs are necessary to take back the “economic sovereignty” of the U.S. and protect U.S. workers, per The White House.
What Do Experts Say?
Many believe that the tariffs themselves will cause many economic consequences. For example, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has sharply downgraded U.S. growth forecasts, projecting GDP growth to fall from 2.8% in 2024 to just 1.6% in 2025. It attributes its outlook to a variety of risks, including tariff increases and inflation.
“Trump’s assertion that a block of his tariffs will cause ‘economic ruination’ is merely his futile attempt to cling on to his disastrous economic policies,” said Meg K. Wheeler, CPA, a financial educator and the founder of The Equitable Money Project, which offers accessible financial education to support marginalized small business owners in building generational wealth in order to eradicate economic inequity.
She noted that American consumers have already begun feeling devastating effects from rising prices and there have been no meaningful changes to trade due to the tariffs. Her assessment aligns with broader economic research by Penn Wharton Budget Model, which shows these tariffs will reduce GDP and cause middle-income households to lose money.
However, Stephen Miran, a Harvard-trained economist and the head of the Council of Economic Advisers for President Trump, holds a different view. He told Politico that the tariffs will result in fairer trade, with the U.S. having the leverage to ensure that foreign trading partners pay the tariffs rather than U.S. companies or consumers.
He told Politico that tariffs will not destroy economic activity regardless of whether tariff rates stay where they are or eventually change with any trade deals.
Ultimately, some say the tariffs will benefit Americans, while others warn of negative economic impacts. But Americans will have to wait and see what the full impacts of tariffs — or a tariff pause — will be.
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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