$4 Gas Returns: Why Trump’s Second Term Matches Biden’s Worst Moments
Written by
Heather Altamirano
Edited by
Zuri Anderson
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Americans have been hit hard in the wallet with high gas prices amid escalating tensions with Iran. According to AAA data, prices are 35% higher than before the war.
As the national gas price sits at $4.048 during President Donald Trump’s second term, parallels are being drawn to 2022, when prices surged to nearly $5 under then-President Joe Biden. The causes may differ, but the outcome is the same — Americans are struggling.
How Gas Prices Compared Under Each President
During Trump’s first term, gas prices ranged from $2.40 to $2.90 per gallon before dropping to $1.84 in April 2020 at the start of COVID-19, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
When Biden took office in 2021, prices were around $2.33 but spiked to $4.92 in June 2022 before falling to $2.89 at the end of his term.
Now, Trump’s second term is taking a different path than his first, with prices starting at $3.076 and climbing above $4 in early 2026.
What’s Driving Prices
The reasons for rising gas prices differ under each president.
“The 2022 spike was a full-blown supply crisis layered on top of post-COVID inflation,” said finance expert Andrew Lokenauth with Be Fluent in Finance. “What we’re seeing now is a geopolitical risk premium, not a structural supply collapse.”
The causes are completely different, but it still affects your bank account the same way.
Limited Presidential Control
When gas prices skyrocket, presidents are typically the first to be blamed, but according to Lokenauth, the reality is that the president has little control over pump prices.
“Roughly 70% to 80% of what drives the price is global crude oil markets, OPEC+ decisions, refinery capacity, and geopolitical events that no sitting president controls,” he explained.
However, this is where policy does matter, on the margin: “Permitting for domestic drilling, strategic reserve releases, sanctions on foreign producers and regulatory costs for refineries,” Lokenauth said.
A Structural Problem
Gas prices are also affected by refineries, and several have permanently closed since COVID-19, according to Reuters. Lokenauth said the U.S. has a big infrastructure crisis that nobody is talking about.
“Less refining capacity means tighter margins and higher prices even when crude is relatively stable,” he explained. “That’s a structural problem that will keep a floor under gas prices for years, no matter who sits in the White House.”
It’s unclear when gas prices will drop, but drivers can make a few small changes to combat the cost, according to Adi Bathla, CEO of Revv.
- Keep tires properly inflated to improve fuel efficiency.
- Maintain alignment to avoid excess fuel use.
- Use navigation tools to reduce unnecessary miles.
High gas prices hurt households regardless of the cause.
“The nuance in the cause matters for policy, but not for your budget,” Lokenauth said.
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