Mortgage Rates Are Stuck Near 6% — Should You Buy, Refinance or Wait?

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After plummeting to 2.65% during the heart of the coronavirus pandemic, per the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, mortgage rates skyrocketed back close to 8% in 2023. As of early February 2026, Freddie Mac data shows rates have stabilized in the 6.10% range, a small improvement from the Feb. 2025 average of roughly 6.9%.

The question for homebuyers and refinancers alike is, will mortgage rates continue to drop, in which case waiting makes more sense, or is this a good enough move to take action?

Buyers: Purchase Now or Wait?

The recency effect makes it harder for buyers to remember that mortgage interest rates near 6% are still historically moderate. But the sub-3% mortgages that many pandemic-era buyers flocked to were priced for crisis and are unlikely to return soon. 

Morgan Stanley sees rates falling slightly through 2026, to the 5.75% range, and many economists anticipate mortgage rates to hover around 6%. In other words, a significant drop in rates doesn’t seem to be in the cards, barring a major economic setback.

Here’s a look at how this plays out mathematically: If you buy a home for $400,000, a 20% down payment will require an $80,000 outlay. This leaves a remaining loan balance of $320,000. A 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage at 6.10% translates to a monthly principal and interest payment of $1,939.18. 

If rates were to drop to Morgan Stanley’s target of 5.75%, that payment would fall to $1,867.43, a savings of roughly $72 per month. 

One of the questions you need to ask yourself as a buyer is if the potential savings of $72 per month for 30 years outweigh the risks of missing out on the house you want, paying more in rent or potentially facing higher home prices later. For these reasons, buying now at today’s rates may make sense for buyers planning to stay in a home seven to 10 years or longer.  

Refinancers: Is It Worth It?

According to Rocket Mortgage, the industry norm is to recommend refinancing if you can save 1% to 2% off your current mortgage rate. With current rates around 6.10%, this means you might consider refinancing if your existing mortgage rate is 7.10% or higher. Remember that closing costs often run 2% to 3% of your loan balance, meaning even in these favorable conditions it could take two to three years to break even on a refinance. 

Here’s an example of potential refinancing math: If you have a $300,000 mortgage at a 7.25% mortgage rate, you pay about $2,314 per month in principal and interest. If you can refinance that loan down to 6.10%, using the same $300,000 loan amount for simplicity, your payment would drop to roughly $1,818. 

That amounts to a savings of about $496 per month. Assuming $6,000 in closing costs, your break-even point would be roughly 12 months. This is within the acceptable range per industry refinancing standards.

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