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4 Reasons You Should Stand Pat on Walmart Stock Amid Tariffs and Inflation, According to Experts

May 11, 2025

4 min Read

Written by Vance Cariaga

Edited by Jenna Klaverweiden

Mateusz Slodkowski / SOPA Images / Shutterstock.com

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If you want to know how Walmart (WMT) feels about the potential impact of tariffs and inflation on its business, there’s this: CEO Doug McMillon was one of three high-profile executives who recently met with President Donald Trump to warn him about how sweeping tariffs could slam the retail sector and economy at large.

McMillon, along with the CEOs of Target and Home Depot, told Trump his tariffs could affect global supply chains and “lead to empty shelves,” CBS News reported.

The closed-door meeting, held on Monday, April 21, had an immediate impact. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said the administration would try to de-escalate the tariff situation with China, CNN reported. Trump also backed off earlier threats to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell because of frustration over Powell’s monetary policy.

The stock markets rallied on the news, temporarily halting a period of extreme volatility and massive sell-offs. So should you buy Walmart’s stock in the current environment? Here are four reasons you might want to hold your shares — and not buy or sell right now.

Management Is Clearly Worried About Trump Tariffs

There’s a reason Walmart became the world’s biggest retailer. It dominates its sector, produces steady profits, and has done a good job adapting to shifting market trends and technologies. But that doesn’t mean the company is immune to negative economic and business forces. When those forces work against it, shareholders could suffer.

“When the CEOs of Walmart, Target and Home Depot show up together, it’s not a social call,” said Edward Corona, a Florida-based trader and publisher of The Options Oracle Newsletter. “It’s a collective, ‘Hey, these tariffs are going to hurt everyone, especially our customers.'”

Inflation Could Hurt Its Business

About two weeks after Trump won a second term in November, Walmart’s chief financial officer, John David Rainey, said the retailer might have to raise prices on certain items if Trump made good on his tariff threats, CNBC reported.

That’s never good news for Walmart (or its customers) because so much of its success is due to the low prices it charges.

“Walmart’s whole business is built on having the lowest prices around — cheaper than pretty much anyone else. That’s always done well for them,” said Anthony Grosso, a New York-based financial strategist and mortgage loan originator. “With all the talk lately about tariffs, especially with China, any new ones are going to hit their bottom line.”

There’s Still a Lot of Economic Uncertainty

The retail giant’s stock has performed pretty well in 2025, rising over 8% year to date while the broader markets have slumped. Even so, some analysts have a “Hold” rating on the stock right now because of uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the economy.

“Walmart’s still the strongest player in their space, especially with a recession on the way,” Grosso said. “But I think a lot of those positives are already baked into the stock price. At this point I’m not expecting big growth. If they can just hold steady, that might be the best outcome until we have some more direction on consumer spending.”

There’s Nothing Wrong With Standing Pat (for Now)

Corona sees a lot to like about Walmart’s stock: It is “quietly forming a nice base,” is “peeking” above its moving averages and has a “bullish setup.” Even so, investors might be wise to avoid any big moves for the time being.

“Walmart’s not in the clear politically, but the chart looks like it’s trying to tell a more optimistic story,” Corona said. “I’d say keep an eye on it, but don’t get caught flat-footed if tariffs escalate. Play it smart, not fast.”

Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.

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