I Asked ChatGPT Which Investments Will Survive the Next Recession: Here’s What It Said
Written by
Nicholas Morine
Edited by
Jenna Klaverweiden
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ChatGPT is growing its influence and capabilities apace, and it’s often sought out for its advice pertaining to all things financial.
And with some talk of recession, the major question analysts seem to be asking is “When?” It could be prudent to consult ChatGPT over the question of which investments might best weather any possible coming market downturn.
ChatGPT’s Three Pillars of Recession-Proof Investments
ChatGPT was quick to gesture toward three particular cornerstones of investment that should be able to withstand the macroeconomic turmoil common to recessionary periods: defensive sectors (“stuff people can’t really cut,” according to the artificial intelligence, or AI, model), high-quality companies (“balance-sheet survivors”), and bonds as well as defensive exchange-traded funds, or ETFs (or “boring ballast” in its terms).
Let’s examine each in brief, outlining its reasoning for each named category.
Investing In Defensive Sectors as a Bulwark Against Recession
ChatGPT was quick to point to an August Morningstar report suggesting that “healthcare, utilities staples, and consumer stocks typically perform best during economic weakness.”
“In plain English: people keep buying food, medication, electricity, and basic household items even when they’re broke and cranky. Companies that sell those things often see smaller earnings hits and less-severe stock drawdowns,” ChatGPT explained.
Placing Bets on High-Quality Companies as Recessionary Survivors
Speaking of several high-profile pieces of recent data points — notably, Goldman Sachs — ChatGPT highlighted the value of cultivating a “high-quality” basket of investments.
In Goldman Sachs’ case, an extensive study of 2024’s likely equity performers (from Nov. 2023) showed that its own quality basket (constituted by 50 different picks, from Alphabet to Tractor Supply to UnitedHealth Group and beyond) was outperformed by the S&P 500 (posting a 6% return versus 19%), but this was a valuable strategic hedge against volatility.
The same principle applies more broadly, per the AI’s advice.
“So, if you’re hunting for ‘survivors,’ you’re not just looking for any old utility or grocery chain; you’re looking for the ones with: low or manageable debt, durable, recurring cash flows, and a history of keeping dividends going (and ideally growing) through past slowdowns,” ChatGPT suggested.
Bonds and Defensive ETFs as Boring Ballast To Keep Your Portfolio Afloat (and Profitable)
Bonds and defensive-posture ETFs are also comparatively solid portfolio picks, according to AI predictions.
ChatGPT pointed to Vanguard’s recent take on bonds as both profitable and highly prized additions to any diversified portfolio looking for a hedge against tariff-induced inflation — and a potential recession. According to Vanguard, bonds and fixed income provided excellent returns, to the tune of between 4% and 7.25% throughout the first half of 2025 while also acting as a shield against disruption.
ChatGPT also summoned wisdom from markets analyst Kirsten Chang of VettaFi, who opened her deep dive into the current investing landscape with the following: “Enter low volatility ETFs — a compelling solution for those looking to dampen risk while staying invested. In an era where ‘slow and steady’ might just win the race, these ETFs provide a defensive anchor. That’s because they help portfolios weather storms while still participating in growth.”
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