Are DOGE Dividend Checks Still on the Table? Elon Musk Lowers Spending Cuts to $150B
Written by
John Csiszar
Edited by
Amber Barkley
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Elon Musk has always made headlines. But his stint being President Donald Trump’s right-hand man in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is one of the most-discussed topics of 2025.
Some of the biggest headlines surround Musk’s promise that the administration will distribute 20% of the money that DOGE saves taxpayers in the form of a stimulus payment/dividend check. Numbers as large as $5,000 have been tossed about as the amount taxpayers will receive, as Musk originally projected that DOGE will save the government $2 trillion.
But on April 10, 2025, Musk apparently dialed back those plans dramatically, telling Trump that he now anticipates saving $150 billion in the first fiscal year — a far cry from $2 trillion.
So, what does this mean for the proposed dividend checks? Will they be greatly reduced, or is there a chance they never get sent out at all?
Why the Changes?
One of the reasons that DOGE is now greatly lowering its savings target is that the original estimates were a bit “pie-in-the-sky,” perhaps to grab headlines. After all, most Americans can get behind the idea of saving money from wasteful government spending, and the more the better.
But, as with many things in politics and economics, change is not quite as easy as it sounds.
For one thing, Musk and DOGE seem to have overlooked that, while getting a large number of employees off the payroll can save money in the long run, in the short run, it’s very expensive.
According to the New York Times, all of those layoffs will likely cost the government $135 billion in terms of lost tax revenue and severance costs. That’s an almost identical amount to the $130 billion that DOGE has reported it has already saved — although according to the Cato Institute, there have only been roughly $63 billion in verifiable, itemized cuts.
Regardless of how the specific math works out, it’s clear that DOGE isn’t saving nearly as much money as it originally anticipated. Whether or not it reaches its goals over the long run is anyone’s guess at this point, but given the initial stumbles, economists aren’t overly optimistic.
As a result of all of this, Musk and DOGE have trimmed their first fiscal year projections to the $150 billion figure — and it appears they still have a long way to go to reach that lowered goal.
What’s the Status of the DOGE Dividend Checks?
If DOGE is only going to save $150 billion instead of $2 trillion — or possibly even less — the idea of a $5,000 payout to every taxpayer is likely dead in the water. However, it’s possible that a lower amount could still be distributed.
The original plan with DOGE was to pay out 20% of the amount saved to taxpayers. If the total DOGE savings only amount to $150 billion instead of $2 trillion, the math suggests that the anticipated $5,000 payout would shrink to just $375.
However, according to the DOGE website, the total savings achieved so far would amount to roughly $1,000 per taxpayer. This figure is achieved by using an estimate of 161 million federal taxpayers.
Would Everyone Receive a Check?
Even if DOGE ends up providing refund checks to Americans, they likely won’t go to everyone. According to the actual author of the DOGE dividend check idea, Azoria investment firm CEO James Fishback, checks would only be sent to “tax-paying households.”
This eliminates a large number of American households, as according to the Pew Research Center, most Americans with an adjusted gross income of below $40,000 effectively pay no federal income tax. Under the DOGE proposal, those households would be ineligible for dividend checks.
The Bottom Line
Thus far, all of the talk about DOGE dividend payouts has been just that — talk. The parameters of the program have shifted repeatedly since they were first announced, and it’s anyone’s guess at this point just how much money DOGE will save, and if Americans will ever see a dime of it.
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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Sources
- The New York Times, “What Elon Musk Didn’t Budget For: Firing Workers Costs Money, Too.”
- Cato Institute, “DOGE Fell Short on Spending Cuts: Now Congress Must Lead.”
- Pew Research Center, “Who pays, and doesn’t pay, federal income taxes in the U.S.?“
