I’m an Economist: Here’s My Prediction for the Working Class If JD Vance Is Vice President
Written by
Jennifer Taylor
Edited by
Amber Barkley
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Ohio Senator JD Vance is up for a promotion. If Donald Trump is reelected president, his running mate will step into the second-highest office in the U.S. The vice president may seem less significant than who becomes president, but they can still affect the economy — and the finances of Americans in every economic state.
While it’s impossible to know for certain what life would be like for working class Americans under Vance as vice president, his Senate record, campaign trail speeches, past interviews and 2016 memoir “Hillbilly Elegy” could offer insights. Economics experts can, too. Here, Dr. Tenpao Lee, professor of economics at Niagara University, shares his predictions for the working class if Vance becomes vice president.
Overall Predictions
“If JD Vance is vice president, he will try to ‘Make America Great Again’ by raising tariffs in general, tightening chip wars against China and enhancing border securities,” Lee said. “These policies will add constraints to the global economy and make resource allocation less efficient.”
He added that this won’t do the economy any favors. “As a result, trade benefits will be eliminated and inflation will be inevitable,” he said. “The prices of importing goods will be higher, but the manufacturing jobs may not return back to the USA.”
He said this would be problematic on multiple fronts.
Wages Aren’t Competitive
“Fundamentally, the wage levels here are too high, and we are not competitive in the global market,” Lee said. “The right solution is to excel ourselves with a competitive edge by investing into R&D of the most advanced technologies.”
He said this will help the country move forward, instead of backward.
Creating the Right Jobs
“The goal should be creating high-end jobs rather than bringing back low-end jobs,” he said. “However, this is a long-term scenario and may not be attractive to voters.”
Ultimately, he said Vance would not be a step in the right direction.
“Therefore, the working class will not be better off, as they deserve high-end jobs, which require policy makers to find solutions internally,” he said. “Not externally by isolating our economy from others.”
Economic Volatility
Justin Godur, founder of Capital Max, also offered his predictions for the working class under a potential Vice President Vance. If elected, Vance’s economic policies could lead to significant volatility, he said.
“His stance on deregulation and aggressive tax cuts for businesses may initially boost investment but could lead to wider income inequality,” he said. “This could create an unstable economic environment where the working class experiences greater job insecurity and wage stagnation.”
Healthcare Accessibility
On his Truth Social platform, Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to get rid of Obamacare — i.e., the Affordable Care Act. However, Vance has been against completely repealing it — at least as a senator.
In a 2022 AARP interview, Vance advocated allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices. He also shared his belief that American companies and pharmacies should be able to import drugs from overseas, to lower prescription prices.
He’s also deeply conservative, with a strong stance against abortion, gender-affirming care and providing “Dreamer” immigrants from having access to federal health programs.
“With Vance’s conservative stance on healthcare, there’s a risk of reduced accessibility for the working class,” Godur said. “Potential cuts to Medicaid and the rollback of Affordable Care Act provisions might leave many without adequate healthcare coverage, leading to increased out-of-pocket expenses and poorer health outcomes.”
Education and Skills Training
“While Vance has shown interest in vocational training, his policies may not fully address the educational needs of the working class,” Godur said. “Underfunding public education and focusing heavily on short-term job training programs could limit long-term economic mobility and innovation, trapping workers in low-wage, low-skill jobs.”
It’s worth noting that in 2021, Vance gave a keynote speech at the National Conservative Conference titled “The Universities Are The Enemy.” In 2023, he also introduced the College Admissions Accountability Act, which would limit the consideration of race in the admissions process.
Labor Rights and Protections
“Vance’s support for right-to-work laws and reducing union power could weaken labor protections,” Godur said. “This might result in fewer collective bargaining opportunities, lower wages and diminished job security for the working class.”
Unions also provide on-the-job safeguards, which he said could be in put in jeopardy.
“Workers might face harsher working conditions without the robust support of unions,” he said.
Social Safety Nets
“Vance’s fiscal conservatism could lead to cuts in social safety nets,” he said. “Programs like unemployment benefits, food assistance and housing support might see reductions, exacerbating financial strain on the working class and increasing poverty levels.”
Vance’s current thoughts on key social service programs remain unknown. However, in “Hillbilly Elegy,” he shared his unfavorable thoughts on food stamps.
Ultimately, Godur said having Vance in the second-highest office in the U.S. likely wouldn’t be a win for the working class.
“J.D. Vance’s potential vice presidency could bring a mix of short-term economic gains and long-term challenges for the working class, requiring careful consideration and strategic policy adjustments to mitigate negative impacts,” he said.
Only time will tell if the working class will see first-hand what it’s like to have Vance as vice president. More insights will likely be revealed as his campaign heats up.
Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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