I’m an Economist: My Predictions for 2025 Now That Trump Will Be President
Written by
Laura Beck
Edited by
Jasmine Browley
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With President-elect Donald Trump heading back to the White House, top economists are weighing in on what’s ahead for America’s economy. Here’s what the experts foresee for your wallet in 2025.
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The Growth Picture
“Real GDP is likely to grow at a healthy 2% rate in 2025 with unemployment stable in the relatively low 4.2%-4.3% range,” said David Kass, clinical professor of finance at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business.
He emphasized that “there does not appear to be a major risk of a recession in 2025.”
Inflation Concerns
Kass pointed to several factors that could push prices higher. “President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to implement substantial increases in tariffs, extend corporate and individual tax cuts, and deport large numbers of immigrants are likely to result in upward pressures on prices,” he explained.
Trade Uncertainties
Jonathan Ernest, economics professor at Case Western Reserve University, warned about potential trade disruptions. “Even the threat of tariffs could lead to retaliatory tariffs, and a costly reworking of supply chains in 2025,” he noted. “Companies are less sure what their future costs will be.”
America’s Global Position
Despite challenges, Kass remained optimistic about America’s standing. “The U.S. economy has been, and will likely continue, to outperform those of other countries in Asia and Europe,” he observed.
Short-Term Industry Impacts
While some sectors might see immediate benefits, Ernest cautioned about longer-term effects. “Implementing tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico and or other trading partners may help bolster production in some U.S. industries in the short run,” he explained, “but it is likely to lead to higher levels of inflation as inputs and labor costs rise.”
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