5 Grocery Items That Might Get Cheaper If Trump’s Mexican Tariffs Fully Go Into Effect
Written by
Stacy Sare Cohen
Edited by
Zuri Anderson
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While Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on all Mexican imports aimed to curb illegal immigration has been partially delayed, some grocery staples could see price hikes if it goes fully into effect. Mexico’s food exports to the U.S. were valued at $34 billion in 2023, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC).
Mexico supplies nearly 90% U.S. avocados and is the largest provider of fresh tomatoes to American grocery stores, said Michael Collins, CEO and founder of WinCap Financial. The country is also a major producer of avocados, tomatoes, bell peppers, strawberries, blueberries, and other berries — staples in many American households, added Collins.
“While tariffs alone don’t dictate price hikes, Mexico’s dominant role in supplying these goods gives it significant pricing power,” he said.
For example, during the winter, Mexico supplies most of the berries to the U.S. when colder climates struggle with production. “With few viable alternatives, grocery stores [could] be forced to pay higher prices for these goods, ultimately passing the costs on to consumers,” Collins warned.
However, there’s hope on the horizon. Sourcing items from countries not affected by the tariff can keep prices low. In addition, boosting U.S. production with greenhouse farming that allows American farmers to grow crops in a controlled environment year-round can cut export costs.
With that in mind, some grocery items might remain stable or even decrease in price if Trump’s tariffs go into effect.
Avocados
While Mexico is the primary supplier of U.S. avocados, other countries have ramped up production in the last decade. Peru has increased its volume of avocado production by 270%, according to Statista, while avocado production in the Dominican Republic has increased by 154%.
Tomatoes
Native to South America, tomatoes are also grown in American greenhouses, providing an alternative to Mexican imports and price increases.
Coffee
The U.S. imports 99% of its coffee, and Mexico exports Arabica and Robust coffee to the U.S. Still, it’s not its largest producer, per World Coffee Research, with most coffee coming from South American regions in Columbia, Brazil, Honduras and Guatemala, which can avoid price hikes.
Berries
Although the U.S. is the second largest producer of strawberries (1.3 million in 2022), according to the World Population Review, Mexico sources berries to the U.S. in winter when growing conditions are poor at home. However, expanding greenhouse farming could keep prices stable — or even lower.
Since the U.S. is the largest producer of blueberries in the world with 334,550 tons of blueberries produced in 2024, according to the World Population Review, the Mexican tariff would not have much impact, especially by using greenhouse farming, which is also better for the planet.
Bell Peppers
Mexico is the second largest producer of bell peppers. With the U.S. being the world’s sixth producer of peppers, according to Research Gate, increasing the growth of pepper production in the states would cost grocers and Americans less.
The Bottom Line
“Trump’s tariffs are designed to pressure Mexican authorities to address immigration issues,” said Collins. “If tariffs lead to favorable re-negotiations that could lower import costs for certain goods, including agricultural products, thus potentially reducing grocery prices in the U.S.”
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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