I Asked ChatGPT When Prices Will Finally Go Back Down: Here’s What It Said
Written by
Laura Beck
Edited by
Molly Sullivan
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Everything costs more than it did three years ago, and I wanted to know when that would finally change. I wanted to know when actual prices would drop back to where they used to be after months of serious inflation.
So, I asked ChatGPT directly: When will prices finally go back down?
The artificial intelligence’s answer was frustratingly honest: There’s no clear date, and “going back down” probably isn’t happening the way I hoped. Let’s break down what the AI said.
The Bad News About Prices ‘Going Back Down’
ChatGPT explained that “going back down” doesn’t mean what most people think it means. Prices aren’t returning to 2021 levels.
“‘Going back down’ doesn’t necessarily mean prices will drop. Rather: the rate at which prices rise will slow, maybe flatten, and in some cases specific goods/services could see actual declines,” the AI clarified.
That distinction matters. If milk cost $3 in 2021 and $4.50 now, slower inflation means it might hit $4.65 next year instead of $5. That’s improvement, but it’s not going back to $3.
What the Current Data Shows
ChatGPT wrote that U.S. annual inflation rate sat around 3.0% in September 2025, up slightly from 2.9% in August. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is moderating but remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Forecast models predict inflation falling further in 2026, with analysts expecting it to move toward approximately 2.6%. That’s progress, but still above the target rate economists consider healthy.
When Relief Might Actually Come
ChatGPT broke down the timeline into stages based on current forecasts.
Short term (next six to 12 months): Price increases continue but at slower rates. Don’t expect dramatic drops across the board immediately.
Medium term (2026-2027): More meaningful relief arrives as inflation approaches the 2% target. Some categories might see real price declines, particularly rent and durable goods.
The AI wrote that housing has lagged effects. Slower housing market activity now may bring down shelter-cost inflation throughout 2026. But external factors like tariffs, energy costs and global supply chains can still push prices up.
Where You’ll Feel Relief First
I asked ChatGPT for sector-specific forecasts so I could see where my budget might catch a break. Here’s what it said:
Groceries: The USDA Economic Research Service forecasts food-at-home prices rising about 2.3% in 2026. Some categories like fresh vegetables and wheat might see slight declines. That’s relief compared to recent years, but your grocery bill isn’t dropping dramatically.
Housing: Experts expect median home price growth to slow significantly. For renters, this means rent increases should slow. For homeowners, it means modest value growth rather than the rapid appreciation of recent years.
Durable Goods: Overall inflation projections show CPI around 2.4% by the fourth quarter of 2026. The big price drops on appliances, electronics and other durable goods probably won’t materialize wholesale. You might find deals, but broad declines across many goods remain unlikely.
What This Actually Means
ChatGPT’s bottom line was clear: If I’m looking for where I’ll feel relief first, grocery shopping and housing costs will show the earliest slowing. But durable goods and general services will still increase, just at milder rates.
The good news is that slower price increases help purchasing power even without outright price drops. If your wages grow 3% while inflation runs 2.5%, you’re gaining ground. That’s different from prices falling, but it still improves your financial situation over time.
The answer I didn’t want to hear turned out to be the honest one: Prices aren’t going back to where they were. They’re just going to stop rising so aggressively. For anyone waiting for 2021 prices to return, ChatGPT’s message was blunt: Adjust expectations and focus on categories where relief is actually coming.
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