7 Product Shortage Lessons From 2020 You Can Use in a Tariff-Driven Economy
Written by
Jordan Rosenfeld
Edited by
Molly Sullivan
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If skyrocketing costs, an unstable economy and fear of supply chain disruptions feels familiar here in 2025, it’s because the U.S. is facing similar conditions as it did in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic’s effects hampered business as usual.
Hopefully, the U.S. has learned a thing or two from that time period that consumers can apply to this high-tariff economy.
Experts explained how the two time periods are similar and different and made recommendations for the average consumer to get through it.
The Risks of Overdependence
The 2020 pandemic put businesses’ lack of supply chain flexibility and their lack of strong alternative contingency or resiliency plans on center stage, according to Tyler Higgins, managing director at global management and technology consulting firm AArete.
“Today, businesses are facing some of the same vulnerabilities, particularly around supplier diversification,” he explained.
While tariffs are a different kind of problem, he said companies are once again learning about the risks of overdependence on one country or region.
Shortages Are Not Inevitable
Unfortunately, consumers, too, will be reminded — painfully, in the wallet — of these risks. “The key difference from 2020 to today will be the shift from shortage to price volatility,” Higgins said.
Instead of sudden shortages in essential goods like toilet paper and cleaning supplies, with tariffs, “the impact is slower and more concentrated on specific product categories,” Higgins said.
However, Price Hikes Are Inevitable
Expect price increases and delays of complex international source electronics and home appliances, or even raw DIY supplies like lumber or paint, warned Raj Bhaskar, cofounder and CEO of Tight, a fintech platform.
Specifically, Higgins said that products and components that come from China will likely be “the most substantial” including “fast fashion.” On these products, Higgins said the price increases will likely show up quickly.
“This follows the 2020 trend, but unlike in 2020, pricing concern is more likely now coming from policy rather than panic,” he said.
Don’t Panic Buy
On that note, don’t panic buy, Higgins warned. “It rarely pays off and stockpiling will end up either leading to waste or leading to mass market disruption.”
Instead, his advice is to “focus on the essentials and understand the impact tariffs may have on the cost of those items.”
However, Bhaskar recommended that if you want to buy a few things in advance of price hikes, consider things like smartphones, laptops and their accessories (phones, chargers, laptops), appliances, HVAC systems and anything where parts are likely imported from China.
Is It Time To Shift To ‘Made in the USA’?
For people wondering if it might make more sense to shop more U.S.-made products, Higgins said that it will be “a balance.”
“It can still be a smart move to turn to local or U.S.-made products, but they’re unlikely to be the cheaper option,” he explained. U.S.-made products won’t directly have tariffs, but the cost of those goods will tend to be substantially higher.
He suggested consumers pay attention to which retailers hold off on price increases and who quickly passes them along to customers.
“By broadening your approach to shopping, you’ll find the best places to procure necessary goods,” he said.
Do Your Research
The best strategy right now is to maintain patience and do your research, Higgins said. “Families that understand the implications of tariffs and where they’ll impact them the most can best plan out the cost of meals, use enhanced budgeting tools and shop appropriately.”
He said there will always be a market for substitute items, lower-cost items or shifting to bulk vs. unit cost if budget allows.
Adopt Smarter, Not Harder, Stockpiling
Another approach to panic buying or bulk buying, Bhaskar suggested, is to create “a rolling inventory.” This means buying one item ahead of when you open the last.
“This smooths costs and avoids overspending emotionally, which is what we observed during the early pandemic waves.”
Deploy New Budgeting Strategies
It may also be time to switch to a tiered modeling of budgeting — such as essentials, discretionary and buffer categories, Bhaskar said.
Set up tracking with Mint or YNAB to monitor spending habits and identify scope creep early. “Smart households run like smart businesses: flexible and proactive.”
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