22 States Are Facing Recession or Already in One — Is Your State at Risk?

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Although the U.S. as a whole isn’t officially in a recession, 22 states are currently in a recession — or are dangerously close.

“State-level data makes it clear why the U.S. economy is on the edge of recession,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, in a post on X (formerly Twitter). “Based on my assessment of various data, states making up nearly a third of U.S. GDP [gross domestic product] are either in or at high risk of recession [and] another third are just holding steady.”

Recession Is an Interconnected Hazard

Zandi’s analysis shows that recession risk isn’t confined to one region — it’s spread across the country. Some areas are already seeing signs of contraction, while others are slowing down after periods of growth.

“The broader D.C. area stands out due to government job cuts,” Zandi said. “Southern states are generally the strongest, but their growth is slowing. California and New York, which together account for over a fifth of U.S. GDP, are holding their own, and their stability is crucial for the national economy to avoid a downturn.”

Here’s a look at the states that are in or at high risk of recession.

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States Most at Risk of Recession, Ranked by Economic Strength

These 22 states are either in a recession or at high risk, according to Zandi. They’re ranked from strongest to weakest economies — but all are facing significant economic pressure:

1. Wyoming
2. Montana
3. Minnesota
4. Mississippi
5. Kansas
6. Massachusetts
7. Washington
8. Georgia
9. New Hampshire
10. Maryland
11. Rhode Island
12. Illinois
13. Delaware
14. Virginia
15. Oregon
16. Connecticut
17. South Dakota
18. New Jersey
19. Maine
20. Iowa
21. West Virginia
22. District of Columbia

These states represent a substantial portion of U.S. GDP, and their economic health could determine whether the country tips into a full-blown recession.

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