Trump’s Tariffs: How the Upcoming Supreme Court Decision Will Impact the Price of Gas
Written by
Heather Altamirano
Edited by
Zuri Anderson
Commitment to Our Readers
GOBankingRates' editorial team is committed to bringing you unbiased reviews and information. We use data-driven methodologies to evaluate financial products and services - our reviews and ratings are not influenced by advertisers. You can read more about our editorial guidelines and our products and services review methodology.
20 Years
Helping You Live Richer
Reviewed
by Experts
Trusted by
Millions of Readers
President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff policy is facing major pushback and the Supreme Court is expected to decide soon, which will impact your wallet at the gas pump.
Rather than getting Congressional approval for tariffs, Trump used the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico, saying a high amount of drug traffickers and immigrants from those countries constituted an emergency, per the White House.
According to Fox News, lower courts have ruled he exceeded that authority and as the Supreme Court prepares to rule, Americans may soon learn whether the decision could influence fuel costs and everyday expenses. Experts explain.
How Legal Uncertainty –Not Just Tariffs–Could Increase Gas Price
The U.S. imports a significant share of its crude oil from Canada and Mexico — more than 70% combined, with nearly 60% coming from Canada alone, according to the Congressional Research Service. Because of this heavy reliance, tariffs on those imports could ripple quickly through the energy market.
“If the Court upholds these tariffs, refineries pay more for crude — and you pay more at the pump,” said finance expert Andrew Lokenauth with Be Fluent in Finance. He estimates gas prices could rise 15 to 30 cents per gallon, depending on the region.
“That could push prices to around $3.45 per gallon in the Midwest within days of an unfavorable ruling,” he added.
But there’s a twist. In a Sept. 7 interview on NBC’s Meet the Press, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that if the Supreme Court rules that Trump’s actions are illegal, the government could be forced to refund billions of dollars in tariffs already collected.
“We would have to give a refund on about half the tariffs, which would be terrible for the Treasury,” Bessent said.
Expect Short-Term Volatility and Longer-Term Structural Changes at the Pump
According to Lokenauth, short-term volatility will hit hard first.
“Refineries in the Midwest get 100% of their crude from Canada, and they can’t just switch suppliers overnight,” he explained. “When the tariffs went into effect back in March, some regions saw prices spike 40 cents within a week.”
Long-term changes come as the industry adapts.
“During my time analyzing energy markets, I learned that oil companies don’t waste money,” Lokenauth said. “If tariffs stick around for six to 12 months, refineries start making permanent changes. They’ll invest in processing different crude grades, negotiate new supply contracts, maybe even build new infrastructure.”
The real danger is the in-between period — and we’re in it now.
“A refinery can’t commit $500 million to retool operations if the tariffs might disappear next month when the Court rules, so they do nothing,” the finance expert added. “That hesitation costs you money every time you fill your tank.”
Get Your Household Budget in Order
Energy costs could remain volatile for at least the next six to 12 months. Lokenauth recommends three steps to protect your household budget:
- Lock in energy costs where possible: If you heat with natural gas, consider fixed-rate contracts — Canada supplies 99% of U.S. natural gas imports, so that tariffs could flow directly into your heating bill.
- Build an energy emergency fund: Calculate your monthly gas and heating costs, multiply by three, and set that aside. When energy prices spike, you’ll have a buffer.
- Weatherize your home: Sealing air leaks and adding insulation can cut energy use by up to 15%, per Energy Star, lowering both your heating and cooling bills.
How the High Court’s Decision Could Change Tariff Authority
There’s a lot at stake. The Supreme Court’s upcoming ruling could redefine the limits of presidential power.
“If the Court sides with Trump, future presidents could gain sweeping power to impose tariffs whenever they declare an emergency — and that would be a massive shift,” Lokenauth said.
The Constitution gives Congress control over trade policy. But if IEEPA can be used to impose tariffs, the president could bypass Congress entirely, the expert noted.
Trump Has Another Option
Even if the Court rules against him, Trump could attempt to maintain tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows the president to modify duties on certain goods if an investigation finds imports “threaten to impair the national security,” Time reported.
The process would take months, which might actually help consumers.
“The slower process protects consumers because when the president imposed steel tariffs back in my banking days, companies had time to prepare,” Lokenauth said. “Big corporations can handle volatility, but middle-class families cannot, so protect yourself before the crisis hits, not during.”
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
More From GOBankingRates
