Trump Said Your 401(k) Is Up $30K — How To Tell If Your Retirement Savings Are Actually on Track
Written by
Daria Uhlig
Edited by
Molly Sullivan
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During his Feb. 24 State of the Union Address, President Donald Trump said the typical 401(k) balance has risen at least $30,000 since he took office. While Fidelity puts actual growth at just over $14,000, from an average of $131,700 in the fourth quarter of 2024 to $146,400 in the fourth quarter of 2025, comparing your savings to the average account balance actually tells you very little about whether or not your retirement savings are on track.
“It is sort of like determining someone’s health based on the average weight of the members of the gym,” according to Nick St. George, certified financial planner and owner of St. George Wealth in Stanley, North Carolina.
St. George told GOBankingRates that whether or not someone is on track for retirement depends on three building blocks:
- Targeted retirement year
- Annual income needed to maintain your desired standard of living
- A list of retirement assets, including savings, Social Security and pensions
“If any of these elements are missing, then it is simply a guess if you are on track,” St. George said.
A good first step for gauging progress is to estimate your retirement income needs.
“Start with your current spending level and then subtract the savings you plan to continue, as well as those you won’t need, such as contributions to retirement accounts or gas for driving to work,” St. George recommended, noting that healthcare costs might rise after retirement.
Next, calculate your income gap — your expenses less Social Security and pension income. (You can get a rough estimate of your future Social Security benefits from your My Social Security account. Contact your employer’s pension administrator for help estimating pension payments.)
For example: Say you want $50,000 in annual retirement income, and you’ll receive $20,000 per year from Social Security and your pension. That leaves an income gap of $30,000 to cover with your savings.
To get your total savings goal, divide your income gap by 4%. The goal for $30,000 in annual income would be $750,000 ($30,000 ÷ 0.04).
St. George emphasized that the 4% rule is a “very rough rule of thumb and not a guarantee of success.” But it does give you a specific target you can measure against your current savings to determine whether you’re on track to meet your retirement target date or need to save more, defer retirement or work part time for a while after you retire.
In the meantime, be aware of situations that can throw you off-course. St. George noted that inflation, taxes, healthcare costs and market swings “can absolutely crush a plan.”
So can a longer-than-expected lifespan as a result of having a healthy nest egg.
“Bigger net worth leads to better drugs, healthier food choices and a greater potential to live till 90+,” St. George said.
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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