Ex-Social Security Commissioner Says System Could Fail — 2 Reasons He’s Wrong (and 3 He’s Right)
Written by
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Edited by
Zuri Anderson
Commitment to Our Readers
GOBankingRates' editorial team is committed to bringing you unbiased reviews and information. We use data-driven methodologies to evaluate financial products and services - our reviews and ratings are not influenced by advertisers. You can read more about our editorial guidelines and our products and services review methodology.
20 Years
Helping You Live Richer
Reviewed
by Experts
Trusted by
Millions of Readers
Former Social Security Commissioner Martin O’Malley recently made alarming claims about the program. He stated that the Social Security system could “collapse” within “30 to 90 days” due to workforce reductions planned by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). O’Malley advised beneficiaries to “start saving now” ahead of potential benefit interruptions.
O’Malley’s warnings highlight legitimate concerns about the administration and long-term sustainability of Social Security. However, his timeline and characterization of imminent collapse significantly overstate the immediate risks.
This article explores two reasons that highlight the misleading nature of O’Malley’s claims about Social Security and three areas where his concerns hold merit.
O’Malley’s Claims in Context
In early March 2025, O’Malley made a startling claim on CNBC, predicting the collapse of the Social Security system within 30 to 90 days. O’Malley attributed this potential crisis to planned job cuts by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, which aims to reduce the Social Security Administration’s workforce by about 7,000 employees.
O’Malley’s warning came amid broader concerns about the Trump administration’s approach to government efficiency and Musk’s characterization of Social Security as “the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time.” The former commissioner advised current beneficiaries to “start saving now” in preparation for a possible interruption of benefits.
This dire prediction stands in stark contrast to official projections and expert assessments of the program’s financial trajectory. O’Malley’s claim of imminent collapse within weeks has raised significant alarm among the nearly 70 million Americans who rely on Social Security benefits.
2 Reasons O’Malley’s Claims Are Wrong
While Martin O’Malley’s warning about Social Security’s collapse has garnered attention, several factors contradict his dire prediction of imminent failure within 30 to 90 days.
Expert Consensus Contradicts Imminent Collapse Timeline
Some experts disagree with O’Malley’s claim that Social Security could “collapse” within 30 to 90 days.
“While Mr. O’Malley’s timeline emphasizes the severity of the risks, a total system collapse within 30 to 90 days is unlikely given the SSA’s historical resilience and likely safeguards,” said Shannon Benton, executive director of The Senior Citizens League.
The 2024 Social Security Trustees Report projects that combined trust funds will remain solvent until 2035, an eight-year difference from O’Malley’s timeline. After 2035, beneficiaries would still receive about 83% of scheduled benefits from ongoing payroll taxes.
Furthermore, the Social Security Administration (SSA) has refuted rumors of extreme workforce reductions. While the agency plans to decrease staff from 57,000 to 50,000 employees, claims of a 50% workforce cut are false. This more modest reduction contradicts O’Malley’s dire predictions of imminent system failure.
Trust Fund Solvency Extends Decades Beyond O’Malley’s Timeframe
The 2024 Social Security Trustees Report indicates that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will remain solvent until 2033. Additionally, the Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund is projected to pay full benefits through at least 2098. When combined, these funds can pay 100% of scheduled benefits until 2035.
This official timeline directly contradicts O’Malley’s prediction of collapse within days or months. A CRFB analysis reveals that even after trust fund depletion, the system would still pay approximately 83% of benefits from ongoing payroll tax revenue.
3 Reasons O’Malley Has Valid Concerns
O’Malley’s timeline for Social Security’s collapse is exaggerated, but his concerns about the system’s challenges have merit. Here are three areas where his warnings highlight real issues facing the Social Security Administration.
Administrative Challenges Due to Workforce Reductions
While O’Malley’s collapse timeline is questionable, his concerns about administrative strain are legitimate. The Social Security Administration is already struggling with significant backlogs, with disability applications generally talking about two years to process. Current employees report being “already short-staffed as it is,” and workforce reductions could “easily extend wait times by one year” per Newsweek report.
The SSA has announced plans to cut approximately 7,000 jobs through early retirement incentives and organizational restructuring. The number of retirees receiving benefits has increased by almost 30% since 2014. Meanwhile, the SSA workforce has declined by nearly 10% during the same period, according to Urban Institute analysis.
Demographic Challenges Create Long-term Sustainability Issues
O’Malley correctly identifies demographic pressures affecting Social Security’s long-term outlook. The worker-to-be beneficiary ratio has dropped from 5.1 in 1960 to 2.8 now, making supporting this pay-as-you-go scheme difficult.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates a $24 trillion present-value 75-year Social Security actuarial deficit of 3.5% of taxable payroll. This substantial gap between projected revenues and benefits requires significant policy adjustments, even if not on O’Malley’s urgent timeline.
Real Concerns About System Modernization
O’Malley raised valid concerns about Social Security’s aging technical infrastructure. The agency relies heavily on COBOL, a decades-old programming language no longer widely taught. O’Malley noted that approximately 30% of employees with expertise in this outdated system are retirement-eligible and are being incentivized to leave early.
“Just because a car is old doesn’t mean it doesn’t need to be maintained,” O’Malley said in an interview with WBAL News radio. “But they are driving out the very people who know how to maintain these systems, which is going to make delays and outages inevitable.”
This technical vulnerability, coupled with workforce reductions, presents legitimate operational concerns, even if not an immediate systemic collapse.
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
More From GOBankingRates
