What a Trump Win in November Would Mean for the Future of the Affordable Care Act
Written by
Laura Beck
Edited by
Chris Cluff
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As we close in on the November election, there’s a lot of talk about what exactly Donald Trump’s policy plans are. One area that’s especially interesting to millions of Americans is the future of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), a cornerstone of healthcare policy in the United States.
Despite his previous attempts to weaken the ACA during his first term, Trump has recently pledged to make the ACA “much better, stronger and far less expensive” if he wins the presidency. This shift in rhetoric, combined with his administration’s past actions, raises big questions about what changes might be expected in a second Trump term.
Here’s what a Trump win in November could potentially mean for the future of the ACA.
Also see what a Trump win might mean for inflation.
Uncertainty Looms for the ACA
Kevin Quinn, president and founding attorney at Legacy Counsellors, said there’s “significant Republican resistance” to the ACA and he believes Trump would try to reduce or eliminate this program. This is in keeping with Trump’s attempts to weaken the ACA during his first term.
However, Quinn doesn’t think it would be an easy road for Trump because a “majority of Americans have now gotten used to the act, and there may not be sufficient bipartisan support to make sweeping changes if either party has only a narrow majority in the center.”
David F. Damore, Ph.D., professor of political science and Lincy presidential chair at UNLV, agreed.
“Repealing the ACA and replacing it was something the GOP sought to do in his first term but was unable to accomplish despite having unified control in the first two years,” he said. “Now, eight years later, the ACA has become further entrenched and presumably the Republicans have learned their lesson.”
Damore said a number of states — including some that are “deeply red” — have adopted the legislation’s Medicaid expansion provision, including Missouri and South Dakota (where it was done via a ballot initiative). He added, “With that said, Trump may try to nibble around the edges via executive orders and the like.”
Potential Impact on Healthcare Access for Millions
If there are changes, they could have wide-reaching implications on millions of people. Individuals with preexisting conditions and those who rely on the ACA’s subsidies to afford health insurance would be especially impacted.
Lack of Clear Alternative
The former president has criticized the ACA in the past but has not presented another option.
This lack of information means there is some uncertainty surrounding the future of healthcare policy should Trump win.
Potential Shift in Healthcare Landscape
Ethan Pickner, insurance broker and owner at AZ Health Insurance Brokers, offered additional insights based on the previous Trump administration’s approach to healthcare.
“With the prior Trump administration, there were some changes relating to short-term limited duration insurance plans,” Pickner said. “The requirements of those plans were loosened and it had created more alternative options to the marketplace.
“The alternative options are especially popular for people that are not able to qualify for subsidies and are relatively healthy,” he continued. “Association-based insurance plans were created as another alternative to the marketplace.”
Potential Increased Competition and Alternatives
Based on these past actions, Pickner said there may be a shift in the healthcare insurance landscape under a potential second Trump administration.
“We would anticipate more competition for health insurance between marketplace and alternative options,” he said.
If that actually happened, it could potentially give people more choices for affordable health insurance plans besides those in the ACA.
Potential for Healthcare Reform Talks
Pickner thinks the ACA would not change much right away. He believes there would be talk about replacing it, but that probably would not happen.
While Trump might want to replace the ACA — although this itself is unclear based on his recent comments — it’s uncertain how he would do it. Because Republicans didn’t manage it in his first term, it likely would not be an easy task to try again, and a Trump second term may shift focus to other areas of healthcare reform that he could have an effect on.
Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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