Tax Refunds 2024: How Much Americans Are Expecting To Get Back

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Last year, the average tax refund was $3,167 as of December 2023, according to the IRS. As of now, the average tax refund for 2024 is $1,395, but that’s likely to go up the further we get into tax season. (For context, the average tax refund at this point last year was $1,963.)

But sometimes expectations and reality are not aligned. GOBankingRates surveyed over 1,000 American adults about how much they expect to receive as a tax refund this year — here’s what they said.

More Than 1 in 3 Americans Do Not Expect To Receive a Tax Refund

The most popular response among Americans surveyed is that they do not expect to receive a tax refund this year, with 35% stating that they are not expecting to get one. This wouldn’t be too shocking if this came to fruition, said Adam Brewer, tax controversy attorney at AB Tax Law.

“A significant number of Americans aren’t paying tax into the system throughout the year,” he said. “Examples include the self-employed taxpayer who isn’t making estimated tax deposits or the retired taxpayer living on Social Security that doesn’t elect to have income tax withheld. In both cases, unless there is a refundable tax credit they are entitled to, then they aren’t going to receive a refund.”

The Social Security recipient example is likely why older Americans ages 65 and over are the least likely to believe they will receive a refund this year, with 53% of Americans in this age group believing they will not.

One-Third of Americans Expect To Receive Less Than $1,000

According to the survey, 33% of Americans expect to receive a tax refund of $1,000 or less, with 15% believing they will receive between $500 and $1,000, and 18% believing they will receive $500 or less. Although the average refund last year was slightly above $3,000, just 9% of Americans believe they will receive a refund greater than $3,000, with an additional 4% estimating that they will receive between $2,500 and $3,000.

Americans in the 24 to 35 age range are the most likely to believe they will receive a refund of $3,000 or more (17%). Meanwhile, Americans ages 55 to 64 are the least likely to believe they will receive a refund of $3,000 or more (4%).

Here’s an overall look at the refunds Americans expect to receive:

• $0.01 to $500: 18%
• $501 to $1,000: 15%
• $1,001 to $1,500: 10%
• $1,501 to $2,000: 6%
• $2,001 to $2,500: 5%
• $2,501 to $3,000: 4%
• $3,001+: 9%
• I do not expect to receive a refund: 35%

Will Tax Refunds Be Larger or Smaller Than Last Year?

Even though many Americans believe they will receive refunds below last year’s average amount, Brewer expects that tax refund amounts will be comparable this year to 2023 refunds.

“Overall, taxpayers can expect refunds comparable to last year’s amounts, unless Congress is able to come together and pass the expanded Child Tax Credit,” he said. “If that happens, then parents will see a significant boost in the size of their refunds.”

Methodology: GOBankingRates surveyed 1,005 Americans ages 18 and older from across the country between Jan. 23 and Jan. 26, 2024, asking 14 different questions: (1) How do you plan on filing your taxes for this year?; (2) When do you expect to file your taxes this year?; (3) How much do you expect to receive in a tax refund?; (4) What do you plan to do with your refund?; (5) Do you feel confident you are receiving all the deductions you feel qualified for?; (6) Do you believe your tax dollars are being spent effectively?; (7) Do you believe you are paying too much, too little, or a fair share in taxes?; (8) Have you ever been audited before?; (9) Who will/would use your tax dollars the best?; (10) How much is the standard deduction for a single filer (and married filers) in 2024?; (11) What concerns you the most about Tax Day?; (12) Do you expect your tax refund this year to be more or less than last year?; (13) What do you understand the least about your taxes?; and (14) What would you rather be doing than your taxes? (Select all that apply).

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