I’m an Economist: How a Second Trump Presidency Would Impact the Cost of Healthcare for the Middle Class
Written by
Madeline Duley
Edited by
Amber Barkley
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As the road to a potential second term in the White House continues for Donald Trump, it’s time for Americans — especially the middle class — to take a deep dive into how another Trump presidency might affect their daily lives. With over 50% of the U.S. population belonging to the middle class, healthcare policy decisions made by the next president will have a significant impact on this demographic of Americans.
Healthcare spending in the U.S. poses a significant burden on individual finances, as the average person spent $13,493 on healthcare in 2022, according to the American Medical Association. With such a significant portion of income dedicated to healthcare, understanding how Trump’s healthcare policies could affect your finances and well-being is crucial.
To gain perspective on the topic, GOBankingRates spoke to David Kass, a clinical professor of finance at the University of Maryland Robert H. Smith School of Business, who has formerly held senior positions in the federal government and worked for the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Keep reading to discover Kass’ perspective on how a second Trump presidency might influence healthcare costs for the middle class.
Repealing or Modifying the Affordable Care Act (ACA)
A key focus of Trump’s potential second term likely involves changes to the Affordable Care Act. Signed into law by President Obama in 2010, the ACA expanded healthcare coverage through subsidies and Medicaid expansion.
“During his first term, President Donald Trump attempted to repeal the ACA, an effort that is likely to be repeated during a second term,” Kass said. “By contrast, the Biden administration has been strengthening the ACA by increasing subsidies and expanding coverage. Biden supports a public option, which would provide a government-run insurance plan as an alternative to private insurance.”
Repealing or modifying the ACA would have far-reaching effects on the healthcare security and financial stability of the American middle class.
“If the ACA is repealed or weakened, the likely result would be higher insurance premiums for the middle class,” Kass said. “It could also lead to reduced protections for those with pre-existing conditions.”
Changes to Medicare and Medicaid
Trump’s healthcare strategy for a potential second term could include significant changes to Medicare and Medicaid. He plans to implement rigid caps on federal spending for these programs, a continuation of measures he supported during his first term.
“As cost savings measures for the federal government, he could seek block grants or per capita caps for Medicaid, which would give states more control but may result in a reduction in funding,” Kass said. “This could lead to reduced coverage or higher out-of-pocket costs for the middle class.”
This approach would shift financial responsibility from the federal government to individual states, allowing them to convert Medicaid into block grants with capped funding. States would have more authority over healthcare aspects like prescription drug coverage, copay rates and standards for managed care plans.
Lowering Prescription Drug Prices
A potential second Trump presidency could also focus on lowering the prescription drug prices, an initiative that would significantly impact the medical expenses of the middle class.
“During his first term, Trump supported efforts to lower prescription drug prices, including importing of drugs from other countries and tying prices to those in other nations where prices are substantially lower,” Kass said.
However, despite these promises, significant changes to drug pricing were not implemented during Trump’s term.
“President Biden has also been working to lower drug prices by allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices and capping insulin costs,” Kass said. “If Trump succeeds in reducing drug prices, then the middle class would experience lower costs.”
How To Prepare for a Second Trump Administration
Given Trump’s proposed healthcare policies, including block-grant waivers that could reduce federal funding to states, it’s essential for individuals to plan ahead. These cuts could be most pronounced during economic downturns or public health crises — times when demand for coverage is highest and financial strain is most acute. Preparing now can help Americans protect their healthcare and financial security from potential uncertainties, no matter who becomes the next president.
“The middle class should review their current insurance coverage and consider options such as employer-sponsored health plans and supplemental insurance,” Kass said.
By reducing dependence on government funding programs, individuals may find greater financial stability in the face of potential spending caps and funding reductions during a second Trump presidency.
Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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