Financial Experts: What a Trump Win Could Mean for the Job Market in 7 Battleground States

As usual, jobs are a hot topic this election cycle. However, the impact former President Donald Trump could have on the labor market over Vice President Kamala Harris — or vice versa — is especially notable in battleground states.

Since these states are still up for grabs by either candidate, many undecided voters are likely interested in what a red or blue vote would mean for jobs.

“Elections are often watershed moments,” said Andrew Crapuchettes, CEO at RedBalloon. “For purple states that are on the precipice between two political views, this coming election will push their economy and job market one way or the other.”

It’s Crapuchettes’ view that a push to the right and a Trump win would be best for jobs in battleground states. However, only time will tell which direction key battleground states will take and how this influences the markets and economy.

Keep reading to learn what a Trump win could mean for the job markets in these crucial voting states, as well as a look at unemployment rates in each state before and after Trump’s first term.

Jonathan Feniak, JD, MBA, general counsel and head of finance at LLC Attorney, noted there was significant job growth in some battleground states during Trump’s presidency.

“Taking Pennsylvania as an example, the commonwealth saw an increase in employment, particularly in industries like construction, manufacturing and mining,” he said. “Similarly, Michigan experienced job growth in sectors like automotive manufacturing and healthcare.”

However, he said that many socioeconomic variables contribute to job growth.

“In a second Trump term, if there’s a continued focus on deregulation and tax cuts, we could anticipate positive impacts on sectors such as manufacturing and oil and gas — areas prevalent in states like Pennsylvania and Nevada,” he said.

Despite that, the implications of potential global trade deals or disputes must also be considered.

“But every state is unique,” he said. “For instance, Wisconsin with its considerable healthcare industry, and Arizona with its thriving tech sector, could be impacted differently than states with a strong manufacturing base.”

Ultimately, he said each of these states have their own dynamics that could impact the job market.

“I expect a common theme of promoting domestic industries to resonate across these states,” he said. “Political policies can have palpable effects on state-level economies, but the final impact is often an intricate web of global, national and local influences.”

• January 2017 unemployment rate (when Trump took office): 5.2%
• January 2021 unemployment rate (when Trump left office): 7.4%
• June 2024 unemployment rate: 3.4%

• January 2017 unemployment rate (when Trump took office): 4.8%
• January 2021 unemployment rate (when Trump left office): 6.5%
• June 2024 unemployment rate: 4.1%

• January 2017 unemployment rate (when Trump took office): 3.5%
• January 2021 unemployment rate (when Trump left office): 4.7%
• June 2024 unemployment rate: 2.9%

• January 2017 unemployment rate (when Trump took office): 5.2%
• January 2021 unemployment rate (when Trump left office): 4.8%
• June 2024 unemployment rate: 3.8%

• January 2017 unemployment rate (when Trump took office): 5.2%
• January 2021 unemployment rate (when Trump left office): 6.4%
• June 2024 unemployment rate: 3.3%

• January 2017 unemployment rate (when Trump took office): 5.4%
• January 2021 unemployment rate (when Trump left office): 8.9%
• June 2024 unemployment rate: 5.2%

• January 2017 unemployment rate (when Trump took office): 4.9%
• January 2021 unemployment rate (when Trump left office): 5.6%
• June 2024 unemployment rate: 3.6%

All unemployment rate data was sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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