I Asked ChatGPT What Would Happen If the Government Shutdown Lasted Until 2026: Here’s What It Said
Written by
Vance Cariaga
Edited by
Jenna Klaverweiden
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The federal government shutdown that began on Oct. 1 has already lasted more than a month, so any hopes of a quick resolution have already been dashed.
The question now is how long the shutdown will last — and the news on that end isn’t great right now. Many lawmakers are pessimistic that Congress will reach a bipartisan deal to reopen the government anytime soon, CNBC reported on Oct. 29.
What would happen if the shutdown lasts into 2026? GOBankingRates asked ChatGPT that question, and here’s what it said.
Also see five ways the shutdown affects your wallet.
Immediate Impact
The consequences of a government shutdown would grow “more severe and far-reaching” the longer it stretches on, according to ChatGPT.
From a purely human standpoint, many Americans would have a much harder time accessing government services and benefits, while furloughed federal employees would not receive their regular paychecks.
The U.S. economy would take a major hit as well.
If the shutdown lasts only until the beginning of 2026, ChatGPT estimated that it would result in a U.S. GDP loss of $70 billion to $90 billion, or about 1% of the yearly total.
Long-Term Impacts
Those losses would be much greater if the shutdown stretched past the new year and well beyond.
ChatGPT made economic projections if the shutdown lasted six months, through March 31, 2026. It speculated on what could happen to GDP, unemployment, consumer spending drag and the stock market (as represented by the S&P 500).
For example, best case, GDP could see a $140 billion hit if the shutdown lasted for six months, ChatGPT estimated. Worst case, however, it could see a $380 billion loss. It also cited a best-case scenario of 4.1% peak unemployment, while it pegged the worst-case scenario at 5.1%.
As for consumer spending drag, the worst case could be a 0.7% drop, while the best-case scenario is still a drop, just of only 0.2%. In terms of the stock market, the best-case scenario could be a loss of 2%, while the worst-case scenario could see a drop of 10% to 12%, per ChatGPT.
And what about if the shutdown were to last nine months, or through the middle of 2026?
Well, GDP could take a $220 billion hit in the best-case scenario, or a $560 billion hit in the worst-case scenario, according to ChatGPT. The chatbot also cited 4.3% peak unemployment as the best-case scenario, while putting the worst-case scenario at 5.7%.
Consumer spending drag also would be impacted from six months to nine months, with the best case being a loss of 0.3% and the worst case being a drop of 1%. The stock market could also take a hit, with ChatGPT putting the best-case scenario at a loss of 4% and the worst-case scenario at a staggering 15% drop.
What Do Experts Say?
There is broad agreement among economists and other experts that the longer the shutdown lasts, the worse it will be for the economy and the American public.
According to the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), the U.S. could lose $15 billion in GDP each week the shutdown extends, Politico reported.
The group also warned that the shutdown could have “wide-ranging economic effects that reduce American prospects through lower growth, higher unemployment, as well as disruptions to Social Security, air travel, and nutritional support to women with infant children.” It also noted that these impacts will only get more intense the longer the shutdown goes on.
A report from S&P Global economists John Raines and Michael Zdinak, Ph.D., painted a similarly bleak picture — not just in terms of the economy itself, but also on the ability of government agencies to even steer the economy in a more positive direction.
“A protracted shutdown … raises the risk of disrupting private production and financial markets,” Raines and Zdinak explained. “If the suspension of government data collection and publication continues, policymakers at the Federal Reserve may be forced to make decisions without access to the latest data on employment, inflation, and economic growth.”
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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