Here’s How Trump’s Mission in Venezuela Could Impact Gas Prices
Written by
Travis Woods
Edited by
Jenna Klaverweiden
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President Donald Trump began 2026 by shocking the world with Operation Absolute Resolve: a Jan. 3 series of American military strikes upon the oil-rich country of Venezuela, which culminated the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on charges of narco-terrorism and drug trafficking. Despite President Trump declaring that this was an act of “law enforcement,” he has also stated that U.S. oil companies will be going to Venezuela to “fix” the country’s oil infrastructure.
Setting aside the complex legal, ethical and political quandaries involved, this begs the question: How could President Trump’s mission in Venezuela impact gas prices?
Also see how Trump’s mission in Venezuela could impact the middle class.
Why Is Venezuelan Oil Important?
Located on the northern coast of South America, Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, an amount that could represent significant long-term energy potential as global demand for oil continues.
Further, Venezuela is relatively close to America (and far closer than other oil-rich regions, such as Saudi Arabia), which would reduce oil shipping times and cost. Also, many of America’s Gulf Coast refineries were specifically designed to process heavy crude oil such as Venezuela’s.
Short-Term Impact of the Venezuela Conflict on American Gas Prices
In the short term, Trump’s mission in Venezuela will likely have a very minimal impact on gas prices, per The National. Despite its massive oil reserves, Venezuela currently produces approximately 1% of the world’s oil supply, so any potential disruptions during this transitional period likely wouldn’t be significant enough to dramatically impact global crude prices.
Indeed, if there were any price spikes to be had, they would likely be tied to market “risk premiums” (when investors are pricing in the midst of uncertainty).
Bottom line: In the short term, American gas prices could incur very small upticks due to a wider volatility in the crude market, but that is likely all. Major increases or decreases in gas prices shouldn’t be expected.
Medium- to Long-Term Impact of the Venezuela Conflict on American Gas Prices
Again, as The National reported, Venezuela’s relatively small export volumes thus far mean that any supply disruptions likely would not cause crude prices to spike, even on a longer timeline.
Conversely, don’t expect a significant increase in Venezuelan oil production (even directly to America) to decrease gas prices anytime soon. As reported by PolitiFact, Venezuela’s oil production infrastructure is in extremely poor shape due to years of neglect and bad management. In order to greatly improve the country’s oil output, a massive amount of time and money would be required to significantly increase crude volumes.
Bottom line: It’s possible that, on a long enough timeline, increased crude production in Venezuela could decrease American gas prices, but likely only after several years of work and big spending to improve the country’s oil infrastructure.
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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