Trump 2026: Energy Price Changes To Expect in Trump’s Second Year of His Second Term
Written by
Angela Mae Watson
Edited by
Levi Leidy
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Donald Trump’s second term as president has already brought with it some major domestic and foreign policy changes. So, if you’re wondering what’s to come, you’re not alone.
One area of much debate is the future of energy prices. Will they rise or fall in the second year of Trump’s second term? What factors will impact them?
Energy Prices Will Likely Rise (While Gasoline Falls)
Retail electricity prices have already outpaced inflation since 2022, a trend that doesn’t seem likely to change anytime soon. In fact, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted electricity prices will rise through 2026.
According to Climate Power, a climate advocacy group, household energy bills have gone up 13% since Trump took office last year (or 7% year-over-year). This is largely due to:
- Canceled or delayed clean energy projects that would’ve powered the equivalent of roughly 13 million households
- Rising energy demands driven by extreme heat and data centers
Heading into Trump’s second term, it’s possible that energy prices will continue to rise. But retail gasoline prices may fall.
“Many forecasts are optimistic that we will see slightly lower gasoline prices due to global oil inventory builds. Unfortunately, forecasts believe that we will see higher electricity prices,” said Zoë Gamble, president of CleanChoice Energy. “Higher electricity prices are being driven by both market forces and policy choices.”
According to Gamble, key factors are:
- Aging grid that calls for capital-intensive upgrades
- Rising demand for power
- Limited political support for new renewable energy infrastructure
- Strong political support for exporting domestic natural gas through liquefied natural gas terminal (LNG) terminals
Back in 2024, the average monthly electricity bill was $144. In states like Hawaii and Connecticut, it exceeded $200. Assuming a 7% price increase going forward (though that remains to be seen), the average monthly bill would be around $154 this year.
Gasoline prices have dipped due to lower crude oil prices. As per AAA, the national average price of regular gas is currently $2.84 per gallon. Last year, the national average price was $3.08.
Energy Prices and the Current Administration
It’s not immediately clear how energy prices will look going forward, but the current administration plays a role just like geopolitical issues and energy subsidies do. Just how big of a role this might be remains to be seen.
“The current administration has a habit (even a policy) of doing large and unexpected things,” said Fox Swim, senior industry researcher at Aurora Solar. “The complex and globe-spanning nature of the energy industry means that it’s difficult to predict how [these factors] will affect the price per kilowatt-hour that consumers pay and how the prices of natural gas versus electricity will look next winter.”
Swim does predict an overall upward trend in energy price increases, however — and likely some volatility this year.
Dealing With Rising Energy Prices Going Forward
The EIA forecasted a 1% increase in energy consumption in 2026, and a 3% increase in 2027. As prices remain volatile, renewable energy might be the answer — or at least help safeguard people’s finances.
“In order for energy prices to come down in a way that is real and durable, we need stability,” said Swim. “Increasing renewable energy grind capacity will provide stability in a way that no other energy generation solution can right now.”
Swim did note that renewable energy isn’t immune to geopolitical turbulence. However, that turbulence is mostly “front-loaded.”
“Once an installation is complete, OPEC doesn’t have any authority over how much sunlight reaches the ground, and no matter how much they bluster, the U.S. Congress can’t legislate when and where the wind blows,” said Swim.
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