In Less Than a Decade, the Most Affordable Homes Might Be in These 13 Cities

If you’re looking to buy a home in the near future but are overwhelmed or despairing that home prices are more than you can afford, you might be happy to know there might be relief on the horizon.

In some cities, experts predict that home values (and thus prices) are expected to come down over the next 10 years. Even the five-year price drops can be significant enough to make it possible for homebuyers on budgets to break in.

To find cities where prices might become affordable in 10 years, GOBankingRates took the overall U.S. median home value and projected its growth over 10 years using Zillow’s February one-year forecast for 2023-24. This projection was then compared to the projections of the 250 largest metros in the U.S. and the metros in the top 250 that currently have home prices above the national median.

One caveat: GOBankingRates does not expect growth in home value to stay stagnant at one current rate for the next decade, but these constant figures provide a strong ballpark of where certain markets are heading.

• Feb. 2023 home value: $371,809
• 1-Year growth projection (%): -0.3
• 2033 projected home value: $360,804

The projected home value in Madison in 2024, $370,693, is expected to be nearly $10,000 more than the projected home value for 2033, suggesting stagnating prices over time.

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• Feb. 2023 home value: $404,555
• 1-Year growth projection (%): -1.2
• 2033 projected home value: $358,548

Between 2024 and 2028, housing prices in Yuba City are projected to drop by nearly $19,000. Over the next decade, the market is expected to drop by about 12%, and the median house price is projected to drop under the national median in 2033.

• Feb. 2023 home value: $327,462
• 1-Year growth projection (%): 0.5
• 2033 projected home value: $344,209

Bakersfield is one of the few cities on this list where the home values are expected to increase, but with a starting point of $327,462, the increase to $344,209 by 2033 isn’t dramatic. Prices in Bakersfield are projected to remain under the national median for the next decade.

• Feb. 2023 home value: $413,112
• 1-Year growth projection (%): -1.9
• 2033 projected home value: $341,002

Las Vegas may be a great place to buy a home in 10 years, as the home values are projected to drop by more than $72,000 (17%).

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• Feb. 2023 home value: $340,785
• 1-Year growth projection (%): -0.2
• 2033 projected home value: $334,031

In New Haven, home values are projected to drop less than $800 by 2024 and by just 2% over the next decade. The median home price is projected to drop under the national median in 2027 and be about 7% more affordable than the national price by 2033.

• Feb. 2023 home value: $336,487
• 1-Year growth projection (%): -0.1
• 2033 projected home value: $333,137

While predictions do point to decreasing home values over the next 10 years, Norwich has the smallest projected variance on this list — at just 1% over that decade. Norwich is projected to dip below the national median home price in 2026 and be about 8% cheaper by the end of the decade.

• Feb. 2023 home value: $414,544
• 1-Year growth projection (%): -2.3
• 2033 projected home value: $328,485

Medford is a town to seriously consider moving to in 10 years. If projections are accurate, home values will fall by more than $86,000 — 21% — and sit 9% below the national median. It is projected to become more affordable than the national median price in 2031.

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• Feb. 2023 home value: $392,711
• 1-Year growth projection (%): -2
• 2033 projected home value: $320,873

Home values in Chico are projected to fall by $7,854 in one year’s time, but a much more sizable $71,838 — 18% — in 10 years. Chico’s median price is expected to fall under the national mark in 2030.

• Feb. 2023 home value: $357,984
• 1-Year growth projection (%): -1.3
• 2033 projected home value: $314,076

You don’t have to wait 10 years to look into buying homes in Redding. In 2027, Redding’s median home price is projected to sink below the national median, to about $340,000.

• Feb. 2023 home value: $352,847
• 1-Year growth projection (%): -1.3
• 2033 projected home value: $309,569

The 10-year projected drop in home values in Baltimore is more than $43,000. Over the next four years, the median price is projected to fall by about 5%, which would make it more affordable than the national median.

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• Feb. 2023 home value: $363,036
• 1-Year growth projection (%): -1.7
• 2033 projected home value: $305,833

In just four years, home values in Ann Arbor are projected to fall by about $24,000, almost 7%, taking it below the national median. In 10 years, that projection is a significant $57,203 (about 16%).

• Feb. 2023 home value: $357,511
• 1-Year growth projection (%): -1.6
• 2033 projected home value: $304,257

In just one year, Minnesota’s home values will drop by $5,720. In five years, that number is five times bigger, at $27,700, and by 10 years, it will be more than $53,000 cheaper (about 15%). Minneapolis is projected to be a more affordable market than the national median starting in 2027.

• Feb. 2023 home value: $377,385
• 1-Year growth projection (%): -3.6
• 2033 projected home value: $261,550

Anchorage takes the top spot with a 10-year difference in projected home values of over $115,000 — about 30%. That also projects to about 28% under the national median home price.

Methodology: GOBankingRates took the overall U.S. median home value and projected its growth over 10 years using Zillow’s February 2023-24 one-year forecast. This projection was then compared to the projections of the 250 largest metros in the U.S. and the metros in the top 250 that have home prices above the national median, with those falling below the national median in the next 10 years (plus projected growth rate over the same period) being deemed “affordable.” For each metro over the next decade, GOBankingRates found the following factors: (1) year the metro will become “affordable”; (2) projected home value for that year; and (3) US average projected home value for that year. NOTE: GOBankingRates does not expect growth in home value to stay stagnant at one current rate for the next decade, but using these constant figures gives us an idea where certain markets are heading without unforeseen market disruptors in the future. All data used to conduct this study was compiled and verified on April 11, 2023.

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