3 Experts Who Predicted the Crash Under Trump — and What They’re Saying Comes Next
Written by
Laura Bogart
Edited by
Kristen Mae
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While many voters pulled the lever for Donald Trump in 2024 believing his policies would lower costs and improve the economy, several financial experts sounded the alarm. Not only did they warn that Trump’s policies wouldn’t bring about the promised boom times — they cautioned they could send the market into a downturn.
Now, as the first several months of the Trump administration’s second term unfold, some of those warnings seem to be coming to fruition. In February 2025, The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped 7 points to 98.3 — the largest monthly decline since August 2021. Meanwhile, the will-they, won’t-they uncertainty surrounding proposed tariffs has shaken consumer confidence and rattled the markets.
Adding to concerns, the UCLA Anderson Forecast, which has been issuing economic forecasts since 1952, recently announced its first-ever “recession watch.” This assessment seems to validate the claims of experts who previously warned that Trump’s policies could lead to serious economic challenges.
Harry Dent: Government Spending Cuts Could Accelerate a Crash
Economist and Harvard Business School alum Harry Dent warned that a market rally following Trump’s victory would be short-lived. Although the stock market surged after Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris, Dent cautioned that what goes up must inevitably come down, noting that Trump’s policies wouldn’t be able to fend off a cyclical crash related to private debt.
“Obviously, he’s seen as pro-business and yes, tax cuts — everybody likes tax cuts. But we already have the biggest runaway, 16-year streak of deficits. We have not seen a balanced budget since 2001 or something like that. It’s just crazy,” he said. “But if he cuts government spending, I’d say that’s going to start a slowdown that will build on itself.”
Unfortunately for consumers, Dent’s prediction about spending cuts seems to be playing out.
Dent also points to another risk: the impact mass deportations could have on the economy. “You got an overstimulated economy, and then you’re going to send [millions of] people out, which would probably reduce [gross domestic product] by 1 to 1.5% right there,” he told Fox News Digital. “It only takes a 2, 3, 4% drop in GDP to literally throw you physically into recession. So I’m just saying, it’s a bit ill-timed. A big trigger.”
Mark Cuban: Tariffs Could Cripple American Businesses
Billionaire investor and entrepreneur Mark Cuban has been outspoken about Trump’s tariff policies, calling them “a good way” to destroy companies. In late 2024, Cuban specifically called out Trump’s threat to levy a 200% tariff on John Deere if the company moved operations to Mexico. He argued that hitting a major U.S. manufacturer with higher tariffs than its Chinese competitors would lower the price of competing Chinese products sold in the U.S. — a huge blow to the company and its American workers.
After Trump’s re-election, Cuban remained critical of his trade policies. Following announcements of new tariffs targeting Canada, Mexico and Colombia, those nations announced their own retaliatory tariffs. Cuban argued that an escalating trade war wouldn’t benefit the average American.
Cuban’s concerns are backed by findings from the UCLA Anderson Forecast, which suggests that Trump’s tariff policy and the trade wars it is likely to incite will ultimately lead to a contraction in the manufacturing sector.
“If fully implemented, the effective tariff rate will rise to similar levels as the Smoot-Hawley tariffs during the Great Depression,” Clement Bohr wrote in an analysis for the UCLA Anderson Forecast. “These will make it much more costly for American manufacturers to produce, and because of the highly integrated cross-border supply chains, make current operations in some industries uneconomical.”
Bohr also recalled the first Trump administration’s trade war with China, which got so intense that it forced parts of the American agricultural industry to seek federal bailouts. “The size of that trade war looks like pennies relative to what’s currently contemplated,” he said.
Clement Bohr: A Historic Recession Could Be on the Horizon
Economist Clement Bohr, whose recession warnings have been central to the UCLA Anderson Forecast, sees troubling signs in Trump’s economic policies. His analysis suggests that the combination of government layoffs, mass deportations, and tariffs could lead to a deep economic contraction — potentially the most severe since the 2008 financial crisis.
One major concern is the Trump administration’s promise to make sweeping cuts to government agencies, which Bohr has flagged as a significant recession risk. The intended 10-15% reduction in the federal workforce would amount to the largest single layoff event in U.S. history — potentially cutting up to 1 million jobs. “This contraction will take place in a sector that usually serves as a macroeconomic stabilizer, buffering against any decline in economic activity in the private sector,” Bohr said.
Bohr warns that if policies such as trade tariffs, mass government layoffs, and large-scale deportations are implemented rapidly, they could trigger contractions in key sectors — including manufacturing, government and construction — all at once. Usually, the public sector helps stabilize the economy when the private sector struggles, but a sudden, dramatic reduction in government jobs could make a downturn worse instead of cushioning it.
With uncertainty rising, consumer confidence shaken, and financial markets sliding, Bohr argues that conditions could be setting the stage for a stagflationary recession.
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