6 States Where Middle-Class Paychecks Could Suffer If Trump Wins in November
Written by
Laura Beck
Edited by
Zuri Anderson
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As Election Day approaches, middle-class Americans are wondering how their wallets might be affected. While a victory by former President Donald Trump could impact workers across the nation, experts suggest that residents of certain states might face more challenges to their paychecks.
GOBankingRates spoke with financial experts to uncover which states could see middle-class paychecks take a hit if Trump wins in November.
California, Colorado and New Mexico: Green Energy Setbacks
Thomas J. Brock, CFA, CPA and an expert with Annuity.org, pointed to California as a state where middle-class workers might face challenges.
“If Donald Trump wins the upcoming presidential election and Republicans secure a commanding position in Congress, I anticipate a rollback of renewable energy policies and a stronger focus on fossil fuel production,” Brock said. “This could reduce investment in green energy sectors and negatively impact middle-class jobs relating to clean energy development and innovation.”
Rene Lacad, an entrepreneur and content creator, agreed about California.
“Trump’s emphasis on the oil and gas sector and possible reductions in energy programs might negatively affect California’s eco projects by impacting employment opportunities and earnings within this field,” Lacad shared.
Brock also pointed to Colorado and New Mexico as states that could be negatively impacted by a stronger focus on fossil fuels.
New York: Federal Funding Concerns
Lacad highlighted New York as another state where middle-class paychecks might suffer.
“In New York state, where taxes are high and federal funding supports infrastructure and social programs, reliance on federal aid could lead to adverse consequences in case of cuts in funding,” Lacad said.
This could mean that even if middle-class workers see some benefits from potential tax cuts, they might lose out in other areas if federal funding for important programs is reduced.
Washington: Trade War Worries
Lacad also pointed to Washington state as potentially vulnerable.
“The escalation of tariffs on goods as pledged by Trump may negatively impact the export-oriented economy of Washington state by causing job cuts and stagnant wages in sectors like agriculture and technology,” he explained.
Ben Johnston, COO of Kapitus, elaborated on the potential impact of Trump’s trade policies.
“Trump has proposed a significant increase in tariffs on the import of foreign goods including a 10% blanket tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods,” Johnston said. “Tariffs of this significance could over time make manufacturing in the U.S. more economic relative to importing goods from abroad, which could be good for some industries.
“But in the short to medium term, these tariffs are likely to drive inflation significantly higher and cause significant disruption to the global supply chain, threatening many U.S. jobs at manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers who rely on the global supply chain to source the components, raw materials and finished products they sell.”
Illinois: High Costs Could Offset Benefits
Cliff Ambrose, FRC, founder and wealth manager at Apex Wealth, mentioned Illinois (in addition to California) as a state where middle-class paychecks might not see much improvement.
“Despite potential federal tax cuts, [California and Illinois] have high costs of living, including expensive housing and high property taxes, which can offset any benefits,” he said. “The middle class in these states might find that their paychecks don’t stretch as far, even if federal taxes are reduced, due to the significant local expenses they face.”
The Final Word
When it comes down to it, it’s important to remember that campaign promises don’t always equal actual policy. And of course, many significant changes would have to get through Congress first.
The economy is complex and influenced by many factors beyond just who’s in the White House. As November quickly draws closer, middle-class Americans should stay informed about potential policy changes. Being prepared is always a smart move, regardless of who wins the election.
Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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