2026 Social Security COLA Predictions Have Increased: What This Means for Retirees
Written by
Andrew Lisa
Edited by
Jenna Klaverweiden
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The Social Security Administration (SSA) usually releases its official cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for the coming year in the second week of October. Until then, The Senior Citizens League, the country’s foremost COLA prognosticator, projected that beneficiaries will get a 2.7% raise in 2026. That’s an increase from 2.5% in 2025.Â
Here’s what it means for retirees.
The Average Retiree Would Get About $54 More per Month
The most recent SSA data from August shows that the average retiree receives a $2,008.31 monthly benefit. A 2.7% COLA would increase that check by $54.22, bringing the average payment to $2,062.53 in 2026 and leaving the average retiree more than $650 richer at the end of the year.Â
What About Purchasing Power?
COLAs were designed to keep pace with inflation and protect beneficiaries’ purchasing power as prices rise. The July consumer price index report showed a 2.7% year-over-year inflation rate. With that figure, retirees would technically see no change in their purchasing power.Â
However, the August consumer price index report put the figure at 2.9%. Plus, the overall inflation rate can be misleading.Â
They Could Fall Behind on Top Monthly Expenses
In 2026, many seniors will find themselves trying to spread that extra $54.22 further than it can go. According to Vision Retirement, housing, healthcare, transportation, food and utilities are the five biggest expenses for most retirees, and despite its increase over last year, the projected 2.7% COLA won’t keep pace with four of them, per consumer price index figures:
- Housing: Up 4.0%
- Medical care: Up 4.2%
- Transportation: Up 3.5%
- Food: Up 3.2%.
Plus, while fuel oil prices fell by 0.5% year over year, the price of electricity rose by 6.2% and piped gas increased by 13.8%.
Medicare Hikes Could Shrink $54 to Less Than $33
The 2025 Social Security and Medicare Trustees Report found that Part B premiums (usually deducted directly from Social Security checks) will rise by an average of 11.6% in 2026, which Kiplinger reported will send the total monthly premium to $206.50 — an increase of $21.50. That would effectively shrink the projected 2.7% COLA from $54.22 extra per month to just $32.72.
Additionally, the publication also outlined several other expected Medicare cost increases coming in 2026.
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