Trump Says “Social Security Won’t Be Touched” – Should You Believe Him?
Written by
Laura Bogart
Edited by
Kristen Mae
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Social Security is considered one of the “third rails” of American politics, meaning that any politician who tries to make cuts to it might find themselves electrocuted by the anger of American voters. During many of his stump speeches, Donald Trump has shown reluctance to touch that third rail, saying that “Social Security won’t be touched.”
While these promises may have eased voter concerns on the campaign trail, recent events have some Americans worried about whether their Social Security payments — or their parents’ and grandparents’ payments — could be impacted. Notable Trump ally Elon Musk and his so-called “DOGE team” have made headlines by conducting an investigation into the Social Security Administration, ostensibly looking for fraud but instead inciting anxiety among current and future Social Security recipients alike.
So, should you be worried about Social Security? And if so, how worried should you be?
Support Services Could Be Harder To Come By
Much of the concern around Social Security escalated after the DOGE team — which has been taking what some critics would refer to as a “wrecking ball” approach to overhauling federal agencies — arrived at the Social Security Administration. Under the guise of efficiency, the team reportedly made cuts to staff members and offices around the country. While these actions don’t impact the amount of money Social Security recipients receive, they could slow down payments and reduce access to vital services.
According to ProPublica, the elimination of 41 positions and the shuttering of at least 10 local offices in locations ranging from West Virginia to Las Vegas could significantly hinder access to in-person services for those who rely on them.
Suggesting that these closures could be “hugely consequential,” ProPublica reported that “the closures potentially reduce access to Social Security for some of the most vulnerable people in this country — including not just retirees but also individuals with severe physical and intellectual disabilities, as well as children whose parents have died and who’ve been left in poverty.”
What About Tax Cuts for Social Security?
One of the more widely discussed promises Trump made while campaigning was to cut taxes on Social Security benefits for those who currently pay taxes on them. While this technically alters Social Security, the intent is framed as beneficial for recipients.
Right now, single taxpayers whose adjusted gross income exceeds $25,000 per year, or married couples with an adjusted gross income of more than $32,000, owe taxes on their Social Security benefits. The prospect of paying less in taxes sounds appealing to middle-class retirees.
A recent GOBankingRates article quoted Crystal Stranger, an attorney, Enrolled Agent (EA), and CEO of OpticTax.com, who called the current tax structure on Social Security benefits “immensely unjust.” She argued that the exemption amounts don’t reflect current economic realities, where $25,000 is not even considered middle class and in many parts of the country falls below the poverty line.
Stranger suggested that eliminating taxes on Social Security could benefit recipients, even if it meant slightly lower benefits. As she explained it, including Social Security benefits as taxable income can raise a recipient’s adjusted gross income, which in turn can push them into a higher tax bracket, increasing the tax burden on other income sources such as pension and dividends.
However, another expert, Thomas J. Cryan, an attorney and author of “Disrupting Taxes,” offered a counterargument: These proposed changes would likely benefit upper-middle-class retirees more than lower-income recipients while also potentially shortchanging younger workers — quite literally. He warned that eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits could accelerate the depletion of the Social Security Trust Fund, making it insolvent sooner than expected.
The Future of Social Security Is a Concern
Taxes on Social Security benefits contribute billions of dollars to federal revenue, helping fund Social Security itself as well as other key programs. Without this revenue stream, the federal government could face additional budget shortfalls, which would in turn impact recipients.
While it may be tempting to assume that this issue doesn’t directly impact you, it likely does. Newsweek has reported that a reduction in government revenue could “[increase] the strain on Social Security’s already fragile trust funds.”
The Social Security Administration estimates that without reform, its trust fund reserves could be wiped out by 2034. However, a Penn Wharton Budget Model study found that eliminating income taxes on Social Security could push that insolvency date to December 2032.
Newsweek also quoted Max Richtman, president and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, who warned, “Trump’s proposal is harmful because it would hasten the projected depletion of the Social Security trust fund, at which time beneficiaries would receive an automatic benefit cut of at least 17%, unless Congress takes pre-emptive action.”
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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