Is a Bitcoin Crash Coming in 2025? Experts Weigh In
Written by
Lydia Kibet
Edited by
Amber Barkley
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Bitcoin, one of the most popular digital currencies, has been in the mainstream media for the past couple of weeks. For the first time ever, it broke $100,000 and even went a little over $108,000.
With this staggering surge, it’s natural to question whether the trend will continue or crash.
The Bullish View
Some analysts predict that bitcoin’s value will continue to grow.
Halving as a Value Booster
John Koch, senior investment analyst at iSectors, said, “I do not think a bitcoin crash is coming in 2025. Our belief in bitcoin’s strength going into 2025 is partially driven by the four-year halving cycles it has displayed since its creation.”
Each time bitcoin is “halved,” the reward for mining bitcoin is cut in half, meaning new coins are created more slowly. The most recent halving was in April 2024, with the next expected in 2028.
“In every past halving, the fourth quarter of the halving year has seen exceptional performance, which is what we are currently seeing this quarter,” Koch said. “The year following a halving, which in this case is next year, has seen even better performance than the year of a halving.”
He added that, while there is no guarantee that bitcoin will follow that trend next year, “we believe that the tailwinds presented by the new pro-crypto administration entering office in January will only buoy the patterns we have seen in the past for bitcoin.”
A Predicted ‘Supercycle’
“I think the odds of bitcoin crashing in 2025 are lower than ever,” said Julia Burlingham, owner of Professional Crypto Recovery. “A lot of people are predicting a supercycle. And with all of the institutional money buying up BTC and sitting on it, coupled with retail users hoarding it and pulling it off exchanges and into cold storage — the closest thing we have to a safe — there isn’t a whole lot of bitcoin on the open market, which is one of the reasons the price is staying high right now.”
She added that there could be a crash if major bitcoin holders — Microstrategy, Marathon Digital, El Salvador and Blackrock — all sold their bitcoin at the same time, but she doesn’t think that’s likely.
The Bearish View
While some experts think bitcoin is going to skyrocket, others think it’s going to crash.
Possible Recession Impacts
Marko Bjegovic, founder of Arkomina Research, pointed out that if the economy falls into a recession or the Fed simply makes a mistake, bitcoin could crash in 2025.
“From late 2021 until late 2022, bitcoin lost about three quarters of its value. And that was only when everyone expected a recession that never materialized,” he explained. “If a recession materializes in 2025, bitcoin could ultimately fall more than 90%.”
Government Policies and Security Concerns
“There are plenty of reasons why this rally can stall,” said Ryan Hughes, founder and portfolio manager at Bull Oak Capital. “If the Trump administration decides not to back bitcoin, which is entirely possible, then we should expect a major crypto correction.
“If there is another security breach [like] Mt. Gox, expect a major crypto correction. If an unexpected geopolitical event shocks the financial markets, investors will surely flee risky assets such as crypto and buy safer, more dependable assets. This would cause a major crypto correction,” Hughes added.
The Market Cycle
Clem Chambers, CEO of Online Blockchain, said, “Bitcoin has been driven by market sentiment, the halving event and the Trump news cycle. We’re now at, certainly near, the peak of the current bitcoin cycle.”
He said it’s possible bitcoin will reach $120,000, but added, “I exited at around $100,000 as the crypto winter is coming soon enough. The Trump effect is fading, and the current meme coin frenzy signals that this is the cycle’s endgame — a crash is highly likely to follow.”
What Next?
Whether you’re still holding onto bitcoin and are wondering whether to sell or want to jump in, it’s a good idea to prepare for any outcome. No one knows exactly what the market could do — that’s why it’s important to diversify your portfolio and lower your risk in case a crash happens.
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