7 Grocery Items That Were Already Getting Expensive Before Tariffs

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The American grocery bill has been climbing steadily since 2020, with prices up about 22% overall according to recent data. But now shoppers are bracing for another hit as new tariffs threaten to push food costs even higher. While politicians debate the impact of trade policies, many foods were already seeing major price hikes long before tariffs entered the conversation.

Here’s a look at seven grocery items that were already getting pricier and why they might cost even more soon.

Beef

Ground beef prices have already hit historic highs, and shoppers are feeling the pain at the meat counter. While 90% of beef consumed in the U.S. is produced domestically, that hasn’t prevented prices from climbing steadily over the past few years.

And tariffs will likely add to existing price pressures despite domestic production. The cost of ground beef for consumers, for example, is already at historic highs, and, according to the USDA, the U.S. cattle herd is the smallest it’s been since 1951.

The shrinking cattle herds are the main culprit, leading to tight supplies and higher prices. Severe drought across major ranching states has forced many ranchers to reduce their herds, as feed costs soared and grazing land dried up.

Seafood

That shrimp cocktail or salmon fillet on your dinner plate has been steadily getting pricier, and it started long before tariffs entered the conversation. Americans love seafood but produce very little of it domestically, creating perfect conditions for price pressure.

This category is likely to take a big hit, because the U.S. imports the vast majority of its seafood — up to 85%, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — and several countries that supply fish and shellfish to the U.S. will be subject to high tariffs.

With the U.S. importing 85% of its seafood, the new tariffs will hit this category particularly hard. Major suppliers like Chile (10% tariff), India (26%), Indonesia (32%) and Vietnam (46%) are all facing significant import taxes that will inevitably be passed on to consumers.

Coffee

Your morning pick-me-up has been getting more expensive for years, but 2024’s price jump shocked even industry insiders. Coffee bean prices nearly doubled last year after severe drought hammered crops in Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s largest growers.

In February, global coffee hit its highest price since 1977 — when a devastating frost wiped out 70% of Brazil’s coffee plants. Today, coffee roasters are feeling the pain, with many small businesses seeing their costs more than double.

And it’s not just drought causing problems. Inflation has jacked up costs for farm labor, fertilizers and transportation across the board.

Chocolate

Your favorite chocolate bars and Valentine’s Day treats are getting seriously pricey, and it started long before any talk of tariffs. Cocoa prices have gone through an absolutely wild ride over the past couple years — and your wallet has probably noticed.

In summer 2022, cocoa traded at less than $2,000 a ton. Fast forward to the 2024 holiday season, and prices peaked at over $12,000 — a jaw-dropping six-fold increase. Even now, prices hover around $10,000 per ton, marking the highest cocoa prices in 50 years.

The culprit? A double-whammy of crop diseases hammering West Africa — which produces most of the world’s cocoa — and tough growing conditions similar to what’s affecting coffee. The changing climate patterns have created perfect conditions for diseases to spread through cocoa plantations, devastating harvests across the region.

Berries

Those beautiful out-of-season berries in the middle of winter have been getting steadily more expensive thanks to rising labor costs, weather extremes and transportation issues.

Berries are incredibly labor-intensive to harvest and spoil quickly, making them especially vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. Farmers in California and Florida have faced drought conditions, while producers in Mexico and South America — who supply most winter berries — have dealt with unpredictable rainfall and rising costs. Transportation delays and fuel prices have added even more pressure.

Olive Oil

If you’ve bought olive oil lately, you probably had a moment of sticker shock at the register.

Southern Europe, which produces most of the world’s olive oil, has been hit with devastating heat waves, drought and occasionally unseasonable frosts that have damaged olive trees. Spain, Italy and Greece — the top producers — have seen harvests plummet in recent years.

The European Union is the source of about 20% of U.S. olive oil imports, and with new tariffs adding another 20% to the cost, that bottle of extra virgin might soon require a small loan to purchase.

Tropical Fruits

Bananas, pineapples and mangoes have long been affordable treats, but their prices have been climbing due to a combination of climate issues, increased shipping costs and disease pressure affecting crops. With the upcoming tariffs, the prices will likely go even higher.

Sources

• Food & Wine, “Food Prices Keep Climbing: Why Your Grocery Bill Still Hurts.”
• U.S. Department of Agriculture
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “U.S. Aquaculture.”
• ABC News, “Climate change is making coffee more expensive. Tariffs likely will too.”
• ABC News, “With cocoa prices at 50 year high, how experts see the state of chocolate.”
• NPR, “Higher prices are likely for these 10 grocery items when tariffs hit.”

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