Gamblers Placing Bets on $2K Tariff Dividend Check — What Are the Odds?
Written by
Nicholas Morine
Edited by
Cory Dudak
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The precipitous growth in interest among Americans concerning splashing down a bit of cash on sports events has been well-documented as of late, with “unprecedented momentum” driving a potential $15 billion in business by 2027, per TrafficGuard projections.
It seems that wagering isn’t entirely limited to sportsbooks, though. Gamblers are keen to place bets on everything from the highest temperatures recorded in various U.S. cities to whether or not the U.S. government will confirm the existence of aliens before 2026 draws to a close on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Speaking of the actions of the federal government, President Trump’s stated plan to deliver a tariff dividend check (usually cited as being worth $2,000) to middle- and low-income Americans has also been put up on both of the aforementioned markets. So, what’s the likelihood of U.S. citizens actually bringing down that tariff check this year? Let’s ask those who are putting their money on the line.
Polymarket Odds of Trump’s Tariff Dividend Check Before July Are Low
According to the Polymarket oddsmakers — essentially those wagering themselves, as positions can be wagered for current market value, a negotiation between buyers and sellers — the odds of Trump creating a tariff dividend by June 30 rest at 24% (as of Feb. 5). That’s down from a high of 61% on Dec. 29.
Bettors can currently buy a “yes” position for ranges between $0.22 and $0.25, with a “no” buy-in costing significantly more at around $0.85. When the position resolves on June 30, a stroke before midnight, the victors will claim $1 per share, and the losers will walk away empty-handed.
The odds are, perhaps unsurprisingly, even lower for a tariff dividend to be issued on a briefer timeline. Polymarket wagerers are offering an 8% chance that a tariff dividend will be issued by March 31.
Kalshi Offers Broader Question, With Better Odds of Trump’s Tariff Dividend Check Becoming Reality
On the other hand, gamblers taking to alternative wagering platform Kalshi have a slightly more optimistic view of Trump’s tariff checks becoming a reality — at least in the longer term.
While odds are slightly lower than Polymarket on the “before July” front, pegged at 16% versus Polymarket’s 24%, oddsmakers believe there is a greater than one-third chance (33.2% to be more precise) that the stated tariff dividend checks will be confirmed “before 2027.” The current buy price for “yes” is $0.39, and $0.64 for “no.”
The comments section attached to the Kalshi question is lively, with users goading one another to buy their positions out, discussing the spreads and asking for clarification on the terms necessary to satisfy the question.
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com. Article was last updated on Feb. 5, 2025, with prices subject to change.
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